Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 4:00 PM within a range between 2915.75 and 2907.50- Odds are for a sideways to down day; watch for break above 2918.50 and break below 2813.25 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Core Durable Goods Orders (0.1% vs. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Durable Goods Orders (4.5% vs. 1.9%) at 8:30 AM
- Final GDP (4.2% vs. 4.2%) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Seoul was up
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., France and STOXX 600 are up; Spain, Italy and Switzerland are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Palladium
- Cotton
|
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.067%, up from September 26 close of 3.061%;
- 30-years is at 3.200%, up from 3.191%
- 2-years yield is at 2.843%, up from 2.831%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.224, down from 0.230
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2903.28, 2895.44 and 2890.43
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2922.12, 2931.15 and 2934.37
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2918.25, the low of 1:30 PM on September 25 and break below 2913.25, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2912.00 and the index closed at 2905.97 – a spread of about +6.00 points; futures closed at 2911.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +2.50; Dow by +24.00; and NASDAQ by +25.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on September 21 was a relatively big green candle with almost equal sized small upper and lower shadows;
- Last week’s pivot point=2918.91, R1=2951.67 R2=2973.66; S1=2896.92, S2=2864.16; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- Second up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A red candle with large upper shadow and small lower shadow; looks like a reversal candle – shooting star but it is not at the top; support near 2886.13
- %K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
- Above 20-day EMA, above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Trending down since the high made on September 21 in steps; below a down trendline and making lower high and lower lows; near the support made by the low of 2905.75 at 8:00 AM on September 19
- RSI-9 trending down since September 21; possible bullish divergence made at 2:00 AM on September 27 near 25; crossing above 40
- Below 20-bar EMA, which below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Trending down since September 21; moving sideways since 4:00 PM on September 26 within a narrow range between 2915.75 and 2907.50; a break above 2915.75 would complete a double bottom pattern
- RSI-9 made a bullish divergence at 3:00 AM near 30; crossed above 40
- At/above 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:45 PM
- The band mostly narrow since from 9:00 PM to 6:00 AM; expanding since with price moving along the upper band
- RSI-9 moving up since 3:45 AM after making a bullish divergence near 12.5; above 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 8:45 AM
- Bias: Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Wednesday September 26 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average was higher in lower volume. Others were lower in higher volume.
Indices were up just before the Fed Funds Rate and FOMC Conference and then they declined. The pace increased near the session end.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Heath Care
|
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Wednesday September 26 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average was higher in lower volume. Others were lower in higher volume.
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