Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday June 15, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 10:00 AM on June 14
  • Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2782.25 for change of fortune
  • Key economic data due:
    • Empire State Manufacturing Index (25.0 vs. 19.1 est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Capacity Utilization Rate (77.9% vs 78.1% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Industrial Production (-0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (99.3 vs. 98.5 est.) AT 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul were down; Tokyo, Sydney and Mumbai were up
  • European markets are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.906%, up from June 14 close of 2.946%;
    • 30-years is at 3.028%, down from 3.067%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.541%, up from 2.566%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.365, down from 0.380

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2774.65, 2771.78 and 2760.16
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2785.01, 2790.21 and 2801.90
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2782.25, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2772.00, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2788.00 and the index closed at 2782.49 – a spread of about +5.50 points; futures closed at 2788.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside  – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.50; Dow by -202.00; and NASDAQ by -41.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down
  • 6-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 8 was large green candle that s breaking away from past few weeks congestion zone
  • Last week’s pivot point=2766.15, R1=2792.78, R2=2806.54; S1=2752.39, S2=2725.76; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week; fourth in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small harami within a large red candle with small upper and lower shadows
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13; made a lower high
  • RSI-9 is declining; below 40
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is at EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving down in steps since 11:30 AM on June 13; lower highs and lower lows
  • RSI-9 moving down in steps since 9:30 AM on June 14; near 30
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:45 AM
  • The band expanding since 2:45 AM
  • RSI is mostly below 50 since 10:45 AM on June 14
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed below %D above 80 at 7:30 AM
  • Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher within in a narrow range on Thursday June 14. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed down. The volume was mostly lower except for DJIA.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  8. Telecom
  1. Energy
  2. Industrials
  3. Finance

 

Exit mobile version