Morning Notes – Thursday June 15, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Futures are sharply lower
  • Moving down since 8:30 AM on June 14
  • Odds are for a down day; watch for break below 2425.75 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data:
    • Unemployment Claims (237K vs. 241est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Empire State Mfg. Index (19.8 vs. 5.2 est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Import Prices (-0.3% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Philly Fed Mfg. Index (27.6 vs. 25.5 est.)

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Shanghai was up
  • European markets are lower
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are up; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are down
  • Commodities are mostly down – NatGas is up
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.164% up from June 14 close of 2.138%; 30-years is at 2.789% up from 2.783%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2428.34, 2415.70 and 2403.59
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2444.13, 2447.92 and 2454.34
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2425.75, the low of 3:00 PM on June 14 and break below 2416.50, the low of 6:00 AM


  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.75; Dow by -98.00; and NASDAQ by -50.50
  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2435.50 and the index closed at 2437.92 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2435.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday June 9 was an almost doji with smaller upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2429.90; R1=2444.10, R2=2460.40; S1=2413.60, S2=2399.40
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fifth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36), which has bullish implications;
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 and second target of 2363.14 are achieved
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back
  • An outside day – high was higher than Tuesday and the low was lower than lows of Tuesday; a red real body that opened at the high of the day but closed within the real body of Tuesday; an open and close below Wednesday’s close on Thursday will make an evening star  pattern
  • Above a horizontal channel – high 2400.58 and low 2322.25 – 100% extension target near 2480.00
  • Above 20-day and 50-day EMA; above 100-day and 200-day
  • Last swing low 2263.62
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving down to lower limit of the emerging broadening pattern after a near third touch to the upper limit
  • Broken the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 4:00 AM on May 18;
  • Below recently falling 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Falling since 8:30 AM on June 14;
  • Broken below an ascending triangle; target near 2395.00
  • Below falling 50-bar EMA and 20-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday June 14. Dow Jones Industrial Average was up. Most had almost no upper shadow indicating late day weaknesses.

NASDAQ Composite, Dow Transportation Average and Russell 2000 made bearish engulfing patterns.

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