Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher and trending up since 1:00 PM on January 30- Trying the break above an ascending triangle on 30-Minute chart
- Odds are for an up day; good chance of increased volatility – watch for break below 2828.50 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (234K vs. 186K est.) at 8:15 AM
- Employment Cost Index (0.6% vs. 0.6% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Chicago PMI (est. 64.2) at 9:45 AM
- Pending Home Sales (est. 0.5%) at 10:00 AM
- FOMC Funds Rate and Statement at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Hong Kong and Sydney were up
- European markets are mostly up – U.K. is down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.726% on January 30 up from January 29 close of 2.696%;
- 30-years closed at 2.980% up from 2.941%
- 2-years yield is at 2.133% up from 2.125%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.601 up from 0.572
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2819.76, 2807.54 and 2795.40
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2837.49, 2837.75 and 2851.48
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2839.00, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2828.50, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2823.50 and the index closed at 2822.43 – a spread of about +1.00 points; futures closed at 2824.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.25; Dow by +220.00; and NASDAQ by +32.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on January 26 was a large body green candle, with almost no upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point 2851.29 R1=28294.45 R2=2916.04; S1=2829.70, S2=2786.54; R1/R2/R3 were breached;
- An up week; fourth in last five weeks and ninth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
|
Daily
|
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Gap down – gap low at 2837.75, the January 30 low, and gap high at 2851.48, the January 29 low
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke below the horizontal channel that it broke above on January 26; now back in at during Asian session
- RSI-9 diverged; was in the making since January 24; RSI at the lowest level since December 29; higher probability of continued weakness till RSI reaches above 65; RSI bouncing off 18.88 to 48.52
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; again under pressure
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- At a resistance zone based upon a confluence of broken support and resistance highs
- Ascending triangle emerging; at the upper limit; 61.8% extension target is near 2846.00 and 100% extension target is near 2852.50
- RSI-14 is rising since the low of 22.92 at 9:30 AM on Saturday 30; Hovering around 65
- Above 20-bar EMA but below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sideways since 3:00 PM on January 30
- The band width is relative same since NYSE session close
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K diverged at 5:15 AM below 20 and is now at near 80 after making an upward knee at 6:30 AM
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed sharply lower on Tuesday January 30. Indices gapped down at the open and then stayed down. S&P 500 made day’s low at 10:00 AM with a green hammer candlestick with a low of 2818.27. The index tried to test I later in the day but did come very close. This should act as a support for a while. NASDAQ Composite made a similar candle but with a large green body that was equal to lower shadow. NASDAQ also closed above the open. It 10:00 AM low support is 7373.99. NYSE made a doji candle at 10:00 AM and its lows has been tested though we are not out of the woods. Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made a pattern similar to that of S&P 500.
| Up |
Down |
- Utility
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
Major U.S. indices closed sharply lower on Tuesday January 30. Indices gapped down at the open and then stayed down. S&P 500 made day’s low at 10:00 AM with a green hammer candlestick with a low of 2818.27. The index tried to test I later in the day but did come very close. This should act as a support for a while. NASDAQ Composite made a similar candle but with a large green body that was equal to lower shadow. NASDAQ also closed above the open. It 10:00 AM low support is 7373.99. NYSE made a doji candle at 10:00 AM and its lows has been tested though we are not out of the woods. Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made a pattern similar to that of S&P 500.
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