Morning Notes – Thursday January 4, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving gradually higher since 4:30 PM on December 29
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2708.25 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (250K vs. 191K est.) at 8:15 AM
    • Unemployment Claims (250K vs. 241K est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was down
  • European markets are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Platinum (unch.)
    • Cotton
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.482% up from January 3 close of 2.447%;
    • 30-years is at 2.809% up from 2.785%
    • 2-years yield is at 1.984% up from 1.935%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.498 down from 0.512

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2707.67, 2797.77 and 2687.83
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2719.03, 2725.00 and 2735.63
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2716.00, the high of 4.30 AM and break below 2708.25, the low of 4:30 PM on January 3

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2712.50 and the index closed at 2713.06 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2711.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.00; Dow by +105.00; and NASDAQ by +30.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 29 was a small red candle with larger upper shadow and following a doji for previous week
  • Last week’s pivot point 2679.78; R1=2685.95, R2=2698.29; S1=2667.44, S2=2661.21; S1 was breached
  • A down week;  first in last five weeks and third in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A green real bodied candle that gapped up at the open and did not fill the gap; almost no upper and lower shadows
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77; on December 18, the index was at 2694.97 and the RSI was at 75.91 and RSI fell on December 19; RSI has regained 70+ after dipping below it for few days
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2708.40; R1=2719.03, R2=2725.00; S1=2702.43; S2=2691.80; R1/R2/R3 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29; broke above a horizontal channel; the 61.8% Fib extension target near 2710.25 was achieved on January 3; the 100% Fib extension target near 2717.50 was achieved during European session; the 161.8% Fib extension target is near 2729.50
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke above an ascending triangle; the 61.8% Fib extension target near 2717.00 is achieved; the 100% Fib extension target is near 2728.75
  • RSI-14 crossed above 80 in early trading on Tuesday; fell below 65 at 4:30 PM and is hovering around it since then
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been gradually moving up in steps since 4:00 PM on December 29; expanding and moving up during NYSE session but contracting and moving sideways at other times
  • The band contracted early in Asian session with Bandwidth nearing 0.10; it the expanded till 2:00 AM; it contracted till 4:30 Am and BW dipped below 0.10; BW is hovering around 0.10 since then
  • MFI-14 is declining since 11:30 PM after making a high of 80.89; it mostly stayed above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K reached 100 at 4:30 AM then dipped to 8.33 at 5:45 AM; it rose o 100 by 7:15 AM and then briefly declined to 64.71 before regaining 80 at 8:00 AM
  • Broke above an ascending triangle at 6:18 AM after a brief break-up-and-then-test; the height of the pattern is 6.75 and the break out is at 2714.25; the 61.8% Fib extension target near 2718.50 is achieved; the 100% Fib extension target is near 2721.00; and the 261.8% Fib extension target is near 2732.00

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday January 3. Major indices made all time highs. Russell 2000 closed at all time high though it did make one intraday. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index gapped up at the open and did not close the gap.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Heath Care
  8. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Utility

 

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