Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 4:30 PM on Monday near all time highs
- Odds are for a sideways day, with an up bias – watch for break above 2667.75 and break below 2663.50
- Key economic data:
- PPI (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core PPI (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney is higher
- European markets are mostly higher – Spain is lower
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
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- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cocoa
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- 10-yrs yield is at 2.394% up from December 11 close of 2.385%; 30-years is at 2.770% up from 2.771%; 2-years yield is at 1.843%; the 10Year-2Year spread is at 0.551
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2652.67, 2644.10 and 2632.71
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2665.19, 2671.92 and 2687.41
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2667.75, the high of 4:30 PM on Monday and break below 2663.50, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2663.50 and the index closed at 2659.99 – a spread of about 3.50 points; futures closed at 2664.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.25; Dow by +55.00; and NASDAQ down by -2.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-to-Side
- 15-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
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Weekly: |
- The week ending on December 8 was a small red candle with small upper shadow and larger lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point 2647.15; R1=2669.54, R2=2687.59; S1=2629.10, S2=2606.71; No levels were breached
- An up week; third in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
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Daily
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- A green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; gap-up at the open that did not fill
- RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; RSI is rising and approaching the previous high
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
- Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2657.26; R1=2663.06, R2=2666.12; S1=2654.20; S2=2648.40; R1/R2 were breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
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2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Drifting higher since 2:00 AM on December 6 in stairs from near the uptrend line from the lows of November 15; at the all time high
- 14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on November 21 the future was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the future was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47; on December 4 the RSI-14 was 66.12 and the price was at 2665.25; RSI is rising now
- Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
- Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
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30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Near a resistance level, the all time high of 2665.25
- moving sideways since 4:30 PM on Monday
- At a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
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15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving up since December 6 morning
- The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) contracted at 11:30 PM on Monday and is expanding since 4:00 AM; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.196%)
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is falling after reaching 100 at 7:15 AM and %K has crossed below %D
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday December 11. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index gapped up at the open and closed higher without filling the gap.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
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- Consumer Staples
- Industrials
- Finance
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