Morning Notes – Tuesday November 14, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down
  • Drifting lower in steps since 3:00 PM on Monday
  • In the lower half of a horizontal channel with high of 2585.50 and low of 2571.50
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2580.50 and break below 2571.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Core PPI (0.4% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • PPI (0.4% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed lower
  • European markets are mostly lower – U.K is up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum (unch.)
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.390% down from November 13 close of 2.400%; 30-years is at 2.851% down from 2.869%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2580.73, 2574.48 and 2566.33
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2587.66, 2592.33 and 2597.02
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2580.50, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2575.25, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2583.00 and the index closed at 2584.84 – a spread of about 1.75 points; futures closed at 2582.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.00; Dow by -40.00; and NASDAQ by -4.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Down-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A spinning top candle with almost equal length upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point 2581.88; R1=2597.44, R2=2612.57; S1=2566.75, S2=2551.19; R1/ and S1 were breached
  • A down week – first in last five weeks; second in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A bullish engulfing candle; the gap created on November 9 still exists;
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2582.33; R1=2590.17, R2=2595.51; S1=2576.99, S2=2569.15; R1 and S1 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways around 20-Bar EMA; Drifting down since 10:00 PM on Sunday; the descending triangle has morphed into a channel
  • Broken below an uptrend line since the low of 2541.50 at 12:00 PM on October 25; Sunday’s high was rejected at the broken trend line; the price has moved sideways since then
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; another break below occurred
  • At/below 50-bar EMA, which is at/below 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Near the middle of a horizontal channel – high near 2585.50 and low near 2571.50; within a higher channel between 2593.50 and 2563.25
  • Broken below the lower limit of a horizontal channel / double top – high 2593.50 and low 2579.75; 100% extension is near 2566.00 is achieved, it was also near an intermediate support zone; the 161.8% extension is near 2557.50, which is the next target and near a support zone around 2550.50; getting rejected after breaking above the intermediate low of the double-top
  • At/below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is at/below a falling 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 10:30 PM n November 12; sideways since 6:00 PM on November 13
  • Near the lower bounds of the envelop (20 – 0.21%) and Bollinger Band (20 – 2 std dev); Bollinger band is flat
  • At/below 20-bar EMA, which is at/below 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday November 13. Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed down. Most also made a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Russell 2000 made a doji and NYSE Composite made a large green candle with small upper and lower shadows. The down gap opened on November 9 hasn’t yet been filled for S&P 500.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Finance
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  1. Energy
  2. Industrials
  3. Technology

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email