Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower- Drifting mostly lower since 4:00 PM on October 11
- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2551.00 and below 2542.75 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- PPI (est. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Core PPI (est. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (est. 251K) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down
- European markets are mostly down – U.K. is up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
|
- Commodities are mostly down
| Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Palladium
- Sugar
|
- Crude Oil
- Platinum
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.345% on October 11 unch. from October 10 close of 2.345%; 30-years closed at 2.875% down from 2.881%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2551.03, 2544.86 and 2540.02
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2557.67, 2560.10 and 2564.96
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2551.00, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2547.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2553.25 and the index closed at 2555.24 – a spread of about 2.00 points; futures closed at 2553.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.25; Dow by -26.00; and NASDAQ by -8.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- A green candle hat is breaking away from previous one
- Last week’s pivot point 2540.75; R1=2561.09, R2=2572.86; S1=2528.98, S2=2508.64; R1/R2 ere breached; R1 has been breached for four weeks and R2 for two; support levels were breached only once in seven weeks, which was during the week ending on September 29
- An up week – fourth in last five weeks; seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A bullish engulfing candle
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
- Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2552.81; R1=2557.67, R2=2560.10; S1=2550.38, S2=2545.52; No levels were breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- At the upper limit of a horizontal channel – high 2550.75/2553.75 and low 2541.50 – after briefly breaching the upper limit following
- At 10:00 AM on September 29, broke above a horizontal channel – high 2506.00 and low 2487.50 – 100% extension target near 2524.50 is achieved; 161.8% extension target, near 2536.00, is also achieved; 200% extension, near 2544.00, is also achieved; 261.8% extension is near 2555.00
- Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
- At/below rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Drifting mostly sideways to down since 4:00 PM on October 11
- Up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at 11:00 AM on September 25;
- Below a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above a flattening 50-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday October 11. Russell 2000 declined. Most also made all time highs. NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Transportation Average did not make all time highs but closed at one.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
- Industrials
- Finance
|
Most major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday October 11. Russell 2000 declined. Most also made all time highs. NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Transportation Average did not make all time highs but closed at one.
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