Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower- Drifting sideways with down bias since 4:30 PM on October 3
- Odds are for a sideways to down move – watch for break above 2533.50 and below 2529.50 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (135K vs. 131K est.) at 8:15 AM
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (est. 55.5) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly up – Sydney was down; Shanghai was closed for the day;
- European markets are mostly down – Germany is up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities are mostly down
| Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum (unch.)
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
|
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.323% down from October 3 close of 2.334%; 30-years is at 2.867% down from 2.874%
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2533.51, 2531.51 and 2525.84
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2535.13, 2539.13 and 2543.14
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2533.50, the high of 4:30 PM on October 3 and break below 2529.50, the high of 11:00 PM on October 2
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2532.00 and the index closed at 2534.58 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2532.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.75; Dow down by -14.00; and NASDAQ by -10.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Up
- Daily: Up
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- A green bullish engulfing candle with small lower shadow and no upper shadow
- Last week’s pivot point 2508.94; R1=2529.86, R2=2540.35; S1=2498.45, S2=2477535; R1/R2 and S1/S2 were breached; support levels breached after five weeks
- An up week – fourth in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
- Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
|
Daily
|
- A green candle with shaved top and short lower shadow
- Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
- Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Pivot Point=2532.85; R1=2536.86, R2=2539.13; S1=2530.58, S2=2526.57; R1/R2 were breached
- Confirmed Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Pre-open price action similar to that on October 3 but slightly higher and lower than previous close; less advance post-close on Tuesday and the high of 2533.5 was made immediately after NYSE session close
- Broke above a horizontal channel – high 2506.00 and low 2487.50; 100% extension target near 2524.50 is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 2536.00
- Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
- Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Drifting down slightly since making a high of 2533.50 at 4:30 PM on October 3
- Up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at 11:00 AM on September 25;
- At flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday October 3 adding the to gains of last week and make all time highs. All closed the day at the highs.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
|
- Energy
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
Major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday October 3 adding the to gains of last week and make all time highs. All closed the day at the highs.
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