Morning Notes – Wednesday November 30, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

S&P 500 eMini Futures (2-Hourly) 30-Nov-16 8:30 AM

  • The futures are drifting higher since 10:30 PM on Tuesday
  • Odds are for an up day

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai and Sydney were down; Tokyo, Hong Kong, Mumbai and Seoul were up
  • European markets are up
  • Dollar index and EUR/USD are up; USD/JPY and GBP/USD are down
  • Commodities are mostly up – only gold is down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2202.96, 2198.15, and 2194.51
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2210.46, 2212.73, and 2216.73
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2213.50, high at 9:00 AM, and break below 2208.25, the low of 8:24 AM


  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.75, Dow down by +59.00 and NASDAQ by +1.75
  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2203.75 and the index closed at 2204.66 – a spread of about 1.00 points; futures closed at 2203.75 for the day

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
  • Candlestick for the current week is emerging to be a harami candle, within a larger green candle
  • Uptrend resumed; broken above a downtrend line since August 15 high
  • Above an up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was the low on June 27, 2016
  • Broke below a small bearish ABCD pattern with a downside target near 2105.30 (100% – met), 2076.77 (138.2% – came close), 2067.96 (150%), 2059.14 (161.8%)
  • Moved above 2193.81, which nullified the break below 2015 high made in early November
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Tuesday was on-neck candle formation, a variation of piercing formation, where the price opened below Monday’s close but closed up; critical for Tuesday’s low to hold
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day and 20-day SMA
  • Down trend line broken to the upside; trend line retaken on November 21
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Broken above the August high of 2193.81, the then all time
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting up after breaking above the upper limit of an ascending triangle
  • Within a narrow range – upper limit bounded by 2111.75, high on November 25 at 12:00 PM and lower by 2196.25, low on November 29 at 8:00 AM
  • Broken above a resistance zone – 2180-to-2185; which was also the upper limit of an ascending triangle; target near 2212; high reached on Friday was 2211.75
  • Broke a symmetrical triangle to the upside at 2:00 PM on November 15; reached the target near 2198 – 2200
  • At 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Drifting up since 10:30 PM on November 29
  • Broken above a down trend line, since 1:30 PM on November 25, at 2:00 AM
  • Above 20-bar and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

S&P 500 29-Nov-16U.S. indices ere mixed on Tuesday, November 29 2016. Russell 2000 and Dow Transportation Average declined but S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite advanced. NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index also advanced.

Tuesday’s low is critical for continuation of the rally. A break below it may trigger a pull back.


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