Morning Notes – Monday November 14, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

S&P 500 eMini Futures 14-Nov-16 (2-hourly) 8:30 AM

  • The futures are trending up since 6:00 AM
  • Emerging symmetrical triangle on 30-minute chart
  • Odds are for a down day

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai and Tokyo were up; Sydney, Hong Kong, and Seoul were down; Mumbai was closed
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K, France and Spain are up; Italy and Switzerland are down
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are up; EUR/USD and GBP/USD are down
  • Commodities are mixed – Crude, gold and silver are down; NatGas and copper are up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2157.17, 2152.49, and 2151.17
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2169.42, 2178.26 and 2181.30
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2174.00, the 0:30 AM high, and break below 2158.00, the low of 6:30 AM


  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.00, Dow by +40.00 and NASDAQ were down by -2.25
  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2159.75 and the index closed at 2164.45 – a spread of about 4.75 points; futures closed at 2161.50 for the day

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
  • Current uptrend under pressure; recent price action may relieve the pressure for uptrend to resume; closer to uptrend resumption than reversal
  • Above an up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was reached on June 27, 2016
  • Broke below a small bearish ABCD pattern with a downside target near 2105.30 (100% – met), 2076.77 (138.2%), 2067.96 (150%), 2059.14 (161.8%)
  • Broken below 2015 high, which was acting as a resistance
  • Crossed above 39-week SMA after falling below it; above 89-week SMA
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day and 20-day SMA
  • Down trend line broken to the upside; at the broken line from below, may act as a resistance
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows broken but reverse sequence hasn’t started
  • Price above EMA-10 since November 7; EMA-10 crossed above EMA-20
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Generally trending down after making a high of 2180.50 at 2:00 AM on November 10, near the high of September 22
  • A descending triangle is emerging
  • At 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • An emerging triangle – symmetrical or almost descending – near the high of 2180.50, highest since September 9; with the recent move to the upper limit

Previous Session

S&P 500 11-Nov-16Major U.S. market indices were mixed on Friday. Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, Dow Transportation Average and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index were  up. S&P 500 and NYSE Composite were down.

Their last few day’s price action also differ. Both Dow indices are breaking out and poised to go higher. Russell 2000 is also breaking out to the upside.

S&P 500 made a doji candle on Thursday with almost same size upper and lower shadows. On Friday it made a doji like pattern with small upper shadow and longer lower shadow. For it, a break below Friday’s low, which is very near Thursday’s low, will be critical. NYSE Composite index’s pattern is similar to tat of S&P 500.

NASDAQ Composite made a near reversal on Thursday, November 10, when it gapped higher at the open but then closed below Wednesday. Friday’s price action did not break above Thursday’s high. For it, the critical break is below Friday’s low of 5179.64. Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index also made a pattern similar to that of NASDAQ.



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