Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P 500 future is unchanged but the odds are high for a down day
- On 2-hour chart, S&P future is at a support level and has broken the uptrend line since August 2nd; on Tuesday it made a lower high but hasn’t made a lower low yet;
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2175.72, 2172.00, and 2165.52
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2184.21, 2186.24 and 2189.97
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the mixed; at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 future was up by +0.25, Dow was down by -9 and NASDAQ was up by +5.00
Before NYSE Session Open
Major US indices declined on Tuesday. Most gapped-down at the open and then mostly traded lower. S&P 500 made a 3-day evening star candlestick pattern at an all time high. Next few support levels are critical for the near-term direction.
Dow Jones Industrial Average, is also facing a resistance at the July 20th high. NASDAQ Composite also gapped-down at the open and closed below the low of Monday but it did not breach the lows of Friday. Russell 2000 made a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern.
- S&P 500 lost -12.00 or -0.5% to close at 2178.15;
- Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by -84.03 or -0.5% to 18552.02;
- NASDAQ Composite lost -34.91 or -0.7% to close at 5227.11;
- Russell 2000 was down -10.74 or -0.9% to 1231.13;.
Asian bourses were mixed on Wednesday.
- Shanghai Composite was unchanged at -0.48 or -0.02% to close at 3109.55; it is still above the recently broken resistance level, which has become support
- Hang Seng closed down by -111.06 or -0.48% to 22799.76; it barely missed making a 3-day evening star pattern but the downward pressure still exist
- Nikkei 225 closed up by +149.13 or +0.92% to 16745.64; it gained more than 50% of the Tuesday loss
- Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 was up by +3.00 or +0.05% to 5535.00;
- Sensex was down -59.24 or -0.21% to close at 28005.37;
- South Korea’s KOSPI was down -4.01 or -0.20% to close at 2043.75;
In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mostly down at 8:30 AM.
- DAX is down by -104.48 or -0.98% to close at 10572.17; the next support is 100 points down at 10474.38;
- FTSE-100 is down by -19.41 or -0.28% to 6874.51; it is making the evening star pattern on daily charts; next support is at 6812.73 and resistance is at 7122.74
- CAC-40 is down by -26.28 or -0.59% to 4434.16; it is again below the downtrend line on weekly timeframe
- Spanish IBEX is down by -86.40 or -1.00% to 8535.20; it has turned down from upper-limit of the post-Brexit day gap-down
- Italian FTSE MIB is down by -173.98 or -1.01% to 16618.98;
- Swiss SMI-SWX is down by -38.98 or -0.47% to 8176.47;
- STOXX-600 is down by -1.68 or -0.49% to 341.64
- U.S. Dollar index is up by +0.106 to 94.870; it is bouncing after touching the uptrend line in progress on daily timeframe since May 3rd; it touched the line on June 23rd too
- EUR/USD is down by -0.7 pips to 1.12735;
- GBP/USD is down by -28.0 pips to 1.3015;
- USD/JPY is up by +36.9 pips (Yen is weaker) to 100.533;
- WTI Crude is down by -0.19 or -0.41% to 46.39; it is on a 4-day winning streak;
- Natural Gas is down by -0.023 or -0.88% to 2.594;
- Gold is down by -8.0 or -0.59% to 1348.90;
- Silver is down by -0.199 or -1.00% to 19.675;
- Copper is down by -0.0165 or +0.78% to 2.1555;
- U.S. Treasury yields are mixed for the day so far
- 30-year yield is down by -0.8 basis points to 2.290% and 10-year is up by +0.2 basis points to 1.578%
S&P 500 is below its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.
|S&P 500 Cash||eMini Futures|
Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3