Market Remarks

Market Diary – Thursday July 14, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The bias is to the up side
  • The 30-minute chart of S&P 500 futures is trending above a uptrend line and is still showing breakouts above many bullish flags for the past few days
  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2152.42 and 2146.21
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2167.42 and 2175.00 ;
  • Early morning futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 was up by +18.00, Dow by +149.00 and NASDAQ by +31.00

Before NYSE Session Open

On Wednesday, S&P 500 was unchanged for the day and made a doji at the upper end of Tuesday’s range. NASDAQ Composite, on the other hand, made a bearish engulfing pattern.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mostly up on Thursday.

  • Shanghai Composite was down by -6.671 or -0.22% to 3054.018 and made a down-sloping flag on 30-minute charts
  • Hang Seng was up +238.69 or +1.12%; it continues up after the break above a symmetric triangle
  • Nikkei 225 closed up by +154.46 or +0.95 to 16385.89; it also made a bullish engulfing candle for the day
  • Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +23.10 or +0.43% to 5411.60 and is approaching the upper bound of a previous rectangle trading range
  • Sensex gained +126.93 or +0.46; it too made a bullish engulfing candle for the day
  • South Korea’s Kospi gained +3.22 or +0.16%

European Session

In pre-US session, for the sixth day in a row, the European stock markets are mostly up.

  • DAX is up by +143.36 or +1.44% to 10074.07 as it continues to fill June 24th gap down
  • FTSE-100 is up +28.64 or +0.43% to 6699.04
  • CAC-40 is up by +1.34%, Spanish IBEX up by +0.97%, STOXX-600 by +0.95, Swiss SMI-SWX by +0.41%, and Italian FTSE MIB by +1.60%,

Currencies

  • U.S. Dollar index is up by +0.047, still in the handle of an uneven cup-with-handle pattern
  • EUR/USD is up by +15.4 pips to 1.11100;
  • GBP/USD is up by +184.0 pips to 1.3316, marching towards a resistance of 1.3534
  • USD/JPY is up by +143.5 pips (Yen is weaker) to 105.807; next resistance is at 106.840

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is up by +1.59% to 45.52; Natural Gas is up by +0.15% to 2.741
  • Gold is down by -20.1 to 1322.35; Silver is down by -1.07% to 20.190
  •  Copper is up by +0.11% to 2.2425

Yields

  • U.S. Treasury yields are up after closing down on Wednesday after a gap-down; 30-year yield is up to 2.262% and 10-year to 1.548%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Chance
Level Break
Chance
Pivot 2151.70 2145.92
R1 2157.18 62% 2152.33 57%
R2 2161.94 42% 2158.67 31%
R1 2167.42 46% 2165.08 25%
S1 2146.94 35% 2139.58 35%
S2 2141.46 34% 2133.17 26%
S3 2136.70 23% 2126.83 23%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

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