Directional Bias For The Day:

• The bias is to the upside, though extremely dependent upon news / rumors regarding Brexit
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2049.10, 2054.96 and 2073.47;
• Critical support levels for S&P 500 is 2015
• Early morning futures price action is encouraging; S&P 500 futures are up by +15.25; Dow Futures by +124.00 and NASDAQ Futures by +31.5

Before NYSE Session Open

Two trading days after the Brexit vote, the market spent some time brooding over the historic decision by British citizens to leave the European Union’s single market and the result was a mixture of profit taking and bottom feeding leading to a 35.55 point gain for S&P 500 on Tuesday, June 28th. The follow through continued overnight and the Asian markets and the European markets rose buoyed by the speculation that policy makers will mitigate the damage.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mostly up.

• Shanghai Composite was up by +0.65%, above 20-daya and 50-day SMA, which are showing bullish cross-over; Hang Seng gained +1.31%
• Nikkei 225 gained +1.59% after testing the February lows on June 24th
• Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +0.77%; South Korea’s Kospi gained +1.04%;  Sensex was up by +0.81%, almost closing the gap down of June 24th.

European Session

In pre-US session, European stock markets are mostly up.

• DAX is up by +1.47%; STOXX 600 is up by +2.17%
• FTSE-100 is up by +2.11% after making a two-day Bullish-Engulfing candlestick pattern on Tuesday
• CAC-40 is up by +2.25%; Italian FTSE MIB is up by +1.41%; Spanish IBEX-35 is up by +2.73% and Swiss SMI-SWX Is up by +1.87%

Currencies

• U.S. Dollar index is marginally down to 96.331 at the support, which was a resistance earlier
• Against US dollar, GBP is up by 117 pips, Euro is up by 30 pips
• USD/JPY is slightly up (Yen is weaker); the trend is still down
• Aussie and Kiwi dollars are up for the day

Commodities

• WTI Crude is up by +0.49 to 48.34; Natural Gas is up too
• Gold is up by +6.7 to 1234.60; Silver is up by +0.547 to 18.390
• Copper is down by -0.015 to 2.169

Yields

• U.S. 30-years Treasury yields are unchanged at 2.274%; 10-years, are up by +0.014% to 1.475%

Pivot Levels:

For S&P 500, 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

	S&P 500 Cash		eMini Futures
Daily	Level	Break Chance	Level	Break Chance
Pivot	2026.28		2013.50
R1	2045.90	48%	2044.75	46%
R2	2055.70	41%	2061.00	30%
R1	2075.32	43%	2092.25	28%
S1	2016.48	45%	1997.25	46%
S2	1996.86	49%	1966.00	39%
S3	1987.06	9%	1949.75	8%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3