Market Diary – Thursday, June 30, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:


  • The bias is to the upside, albeit, modestly
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2082.54 and 2092.64;
  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2063.11 and 2051.26
  • Early morning futures price action is indecisive. After making a high of 2074.75 post-NYSE session, futures dropped to 2056.50 before London session open. Pre-NYSE session, futures are trading at 2068.25, up by one point.

Before NYSE Session Open

After two big down days following the Brexit vote, markets around the world bounced on Tuesday June 28th. The bounce followed through on Wednesday.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mixed.

  • Shanghai Composite was range bound for the day and closed almost unchanged, down -0.07% at 2929.60; it is struggling to overcome the resistance of 2945.52, the high of June 2016;  Hang Seng gapped up and gained +1.75%, tracing a symmetric triangle on daily timeframe
  • Nikkei 225 gained +01.06%, but still closed below the open for the day
  • Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +1.77% to reach 5233.4, just below the resistance of 5295.60, which was previous support
  • South Korea’s Kospi gained +0.72%;
  • Sensex was up by +0.97% at 26999.72. It is knocking on 2016 high of 27105.41 made on June 8th

European Session

In pre-US session, European stock markets are mixed.

  • DAX is almost unchanged – down by -0.05% at 9607.90 – still below the high of the Friday gap down of 9720.12; STOXX 600 is up by +0.15%
  • FTSE-100 is up by +0.09% to 6365.78, which above the pre-Brexit close of 6338.10
  • CAC-40 is up by +0.32%; Italian FTSE MIB is up by +0.03%; Spanish IBEX-35 is down by -0.18% and Swiss SMI-SWX Is up by +0.05%


  • U.S. Dollar index is marginally up to 95.807 after falling for last two days
  • Against US dollar, GBP and Euro are slightly down to 1.3414 and 1.10984 respectively
  • USD/JPY is slightly down (Yen is stronger); the trend is still down
  • Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down for the day


  • WTI Crude is down by -0.109 to 48.79; Natural Gas is up by +0.91%
  • Gold is down by -0.44% and Silver is up by +0.48%
  • Copper is up by +0.18%


  • U.S. Treasury yields are up for the day – 30-years by 20-basis points and 10-years by 23 basis points

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 closed above its 10-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Level Break
Pivot 2062.20 2054.75
R1 2081.70 49% 2086.75 47%
R2 2092.64 41% 2106.75 30%
R1 2112.14 42% 2138.75 27%
S1 2051.26 45% 2034.75 46%
S2 2031.76 49% 2002.75 39%
S3 2020.82 9% 1982.75 8%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

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