9:50 AM: Breaking Out
The impact of evening star didn’t last long and the futures are breaking above a rectangle trading box and also an ascending triangle. S&P 500 is near 2108, which increase the probability of it testing the resistance of 2111.05, the high reached in April 2016, and 2116.48, the high reached in November 2015.
9:25 AM: Evening Star
Directional Bias For The Day:
- The bias is to the upside; but S&P 500 futures are near a resistance level
- Critical resistance level for S&P 500 is 2116.48
- Chair Yellen is giving a speech at 12:15 PM and it will have impact
Before NYSE Session Open
The Asian bourses were mixed after the weekend.
- Shanghai Composite was down by -0.16%; it is facing a resistance and 50-day SMA but still maintaining an upward bias, at least in the short-term; Hang Seng gained +0.40%
- Nikkei 225 shed -0.37% but for the day it was up as it opened the day with a deep gap-down. After that it rose through out the day. If Nikkei follows through on Tuesday the it might be a short-term reversal
- Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +0.78%; it continues its bounce off the lower-limit of a rectangle that we mentioned on June 2nd
- Sensex was lost -0.24%; with this, it has formed en evening star 3-day candlestick reversal pattern; still, there is support at 26561, the low reached on May 31st
In pre-US session, European stock markets are mostly up.
- DAX is up by +0.24%; so far it is forming a green Harami candlestick buried within a large red candle of Friday; STOXX 600 is up by +0.23% and its candlestick formation is similar – more like a morning star
- FTSE-100 is up by +1.08%; it formed a bullish engulfing pattern on Friday
- CAC-40 up by +0.17%; Italian FTSE MIB is up by +0.18%; Spanish IBEX-35 is up by +0.38% and Swiss SMI-SWX Is up by +0.28%; they all are forming a similar candle similar to that of DAX for the last two days
- U.S. Dollar index is marginally up for the day so far; it is still showing a downward bias, which accentuated after big-loss on Friday; it is inching toward the support of 92.52, the lower bound of rectangle box, which is forming at the top since January 2015. The high of the has is near 100.
- Euro is down against the dollar; it is showing a similar pattern that of dollar but in reverse, which could turn out to be a bottoming pattern if it breaks above 1.16163, the high reached on May 3, 2016.
- USD/JPY is slightly up (Yen is weaker) but it looks more like a dead-cat-bounce; the trend is still down
- Pound is weaker; against euro, it is in an upswing since November 2015, however, the volatility has increased since the start of 2016
- Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down for the day; they are bouncing off the bottom formed in August 2015 at the lowest level is previous six years; the emerging chart pattern also has a potential to become a bearish flag
- MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose by +0.7%; Indonesia’s rupiah climbed 1.6 percent, and Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened 1.2 percent; Indian Rupee lost against the U.S. dollar
- WTI Crude is up by +1.04 to 49.65, still trying to break 50; the short-term trend is up
- Natural Gas is slightly up by +0.41 to 2.439, nearing the resistance of 2.480, the January 8th high
- Gold and Silver are up marginally, following a large range day on Friday
- Copper is up by +0.160 to 2.129; Friday was the largest range day since May 5, 2016; it has broken out of a chart pattern to the upside; there are no strong resistance levels nearby
- Treasury yields, U.S. 30-years and 10-years, are by +0.013% and +0.021% respectively; but they broke below triangle patterns and are still facing downward pressure
S&P 500 is above 10-D EMA; 10-EMA is above 20-D EMA; 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.
|S&P 500 Cash||eMini Futures|
Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when 1) the price is above 10-D EMA; 2) 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA; and 3) 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3