EUR/CHF Breaking Above A Channel

EUR/CHF is currently a neutered trade as the floor of 1.2000 put in by SNB is still in effect. The data coming from Euro Zone marginally affects it. The Swiss economy is not as gung-ho as it was some time back, which means the data from Switzerland will also not impact it for some time. So the pair is left to oscillate between a narrow band with no long-term strongly bullish or strongly bearish trend lines.

A recent survey by Bloomberg found that only six of 22 participants think that SNB will exit its policy to cap the Swiss franc by the end of 2015. The number was double a month ago. In fact, ECB’s decision to loosen its monetary policy even more has raised the prospects of SNB following suit. At the minimum, the EUR/CHF exchange-rate floor will stay longer. The quarterly policy decision from SNB is planned for June 19th and the expectations are that the bank will leave the its interest-rate target range at zero to 0.25%. The EUR/CHF cap will also be not touched.

The franc has gained a bit against euro recently, due to upheaval in Eastern Europe, but SNB is demonstrated well that it is fully committed to defend its rate-floor. Market experts are also not expecting a test of the cap anytime soon. The inflation is tame and there are dangers of deflation. In this environment, SNB President Thomas Jordan has said that current low-level of exchange rate is vital to keep away deflation.

In early June, the pair bounced off – for the third time – from the 12-months long support line. Now it is breaking above a resistance line. The channel width is only 25 PIPs. Not a great setup for a trade as the opportunity is not big and this chart analysis is mostly for documentation.


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