Bear Attack In June – Almanac Trader Alert

June and summer are historically weak months for the stock market when the bears generally come out of hibernation. Some days – specifically the days surrounding the Triple-Witching Fridays – have somewhat more predictability that others. On Monday before the option expiration Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Averages have shown a tendency to weaken. Stock Trader’s Almanac noticed this first. We did more research and applied our proprietary entry-exit algorithm and developed a very good strategy to trade on the down side.

Since 1970, our strategy has produced 75% of winning trades for Dow. The average return is 0.5% with a 10-day holding period giving an annualized return of 16.2%. We have used leveraged ETFs, which were introduced few years ago, in our simulated Seasonal Almanac portfolio.

Seq. ETF # of Trades Win % Avg. Return Annualized Days
1 DXD 8 100% 2.1% 84.7% 9
2 SPXS 6 80% 11.8% 145.8% 9

The average return for the strategy is 2.6% with a 9-day holding period giving an annualized return of 107.5%.

Our algorithm generated an entry signal on the close Friday June 13th.

  • Go long DXD at or near 25.77
  • Go long SPXS at or near 27.05

We will send out an alert when the exit signal are generated, which will be later some times this week or next.


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