September is a month that traditionally has been very bad for the stock market. Accoridnig to Stock Trader’s Almanac, based upon last 61 years performance, September has been last in terms of monthly performance. The Almanac also notes that the beginning of the monthe is better than the end of the month. Also, three sectors – consumer, healthcar and oil – have seasonly done better in September.
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Charts Are Not Broken:
SPY is still knocking at the recent high. A break above the resistance would be hugely bullish. The current trend limits the downside to the uptrend line.
The consumer sector $CMR – Morgan Stanley Consumeer Index – is trying to stay above the just broken resistance level.
The Consumer Staples Select Sector – XLP – is in moving upward within an uptrend channel.
Morgan Stanley Healthcare Providers index – $RXH – is trying to overcome July-2011-high-resistance.
The corresponding ETF – XLV has broken above a resistance level and is trying to stay above it.
The third sector that seasonally does better in September – oil – is also uptrend though it is taking a breather. Amex Oil index – $XOI – is finding a resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
UGA – United States Gasoline Fund – has made a sharp V-shaped recovery since the decline that begun in April and is now above that high.
Chairman Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech speech brought the shine back to gold. GLD was making a decent recovery after making a bottom in May and the speech made it much more credible.
The gold miners and junior miniers – GDX & GDXJ – are delicately poised just below a resistance level. A convincing break above will have significant upside.
Finally, materials may not be in the limelight but XLB has been trending up in a upward sloping channel since early June. It is at the lower bound of the channel. Previous three such lower-limit touches were followed by decent bounce.