What To Expect at Next Week’s Fed Meeting This coming week the Federal Reserve is going to conduct the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, its sixth of the year, over a two-day period, followed by a press conference at 2:00 PM on Wednesday September 26th. This will be the third meeting of the year with a press-conference.…
The US Economy Is Doing Great The US economy is strong and the major indicators gauging its health are trending higher. Fig. 1 shows that the five major economic indicators – Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Disposal Personal Income and the Per Capita GDP – indexed to just before the start of 2001 recession are…
Monthly Chart Indicates Pause in Uptrend For the month of August 2018, the dollar index made a shooting star pattern (see Fig 1). The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs after a rally. The index has been rising since making a low of 88.15 on February 16, 2018. So even though the…
The U.S. Economy Current Expansion – 104 Months Long The current economic expansion started in June 2009, according to NBER, which makes January 2018 the 104th month of expansion from the last trough. This is the third longest streak after the 120 months long expansion from March 1991 to March 2001 and 106 months long expansion from February 1961 to…
The last U.S. government shutdown happened in October 2013. Then the federal government shutdown lasted for sixteen days from October 1st to October 17th. Here is the time line for it. The U.S. House of Representative was controlled by Republicans, the Senate by Democrats and Obama was president. The point of contention was Affordable Care Act (ACA) or the…
The U.S. market is continuing with the bull rally that started in March 2009. During this time, significant market declines occurred only three time. In 2010, the S&P 500 declined by 17.13%, mostly due to concerns arising from the European Sovereign debt crisis. In 2011, the S&P 500 declined in the wake of U.S. debt ceiling…
The 65 Thousand Feet View Last Update on Tuesday January 2, 2018 The S&P 500 is marching, with nary a worry, to the beats of technical patterns. It is approaching the upper limit of a regression channel (78 months and 0.5 standard deviation) on monthly chart (see Fig. C). From February to September 2017, the index moved up along the linear…
U.S. Major Indices The week of September 18, 2017 was mostly a positive week for the U.S. equity markets. NASDAQ Composite declined but other major indices advanced. Four S&P 500 sectors – Energy, Materials, Industrials and Finance – also advanced. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have been up for six months and had…
An analysis of daily price change since 1973 tells us that there are some certain seasonal biases in the market. Major U.S. indices show a greater probability of advancing in some months as compared to others. There are many reasons for seasonal or monthly bias in equity market. We will review some of them in future posts. The…
The equity indices of most major nations in the world are trending up. Emerging Markets are doing better than developed market. Emerging Market Are Doing Better The Select Sector SPDR ETF, SPY, bottomed in February 2016 (Third Panel Chart 1). EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, bottomed few days later (First Panel Chart 1) and EEM,…