Morning Notes – Tuesday, April 9, 2024

/ April 9, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures have been moving higher since 6:30 AM from a sideways move. Up more than 25 points.
  • The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break below 5246.00 for a change of sentiments.
  • No major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Down-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5214.64, 5200.58, and 5188.88.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5219.57, 5221.97, and 5236.77.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5272.50, the high at 12:30 PM on Friday, and 5246.00, the low at 6:30 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2024) closed at 5254.25, and the index closed at 5202.39 – a spread of about +51.75 points; the futures closed at 5253.25; the fair value is +1.00.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +12.75, Dow by +39, and NASDAQ by +68.25.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai and Seoul closed down.
  • European markets are mostly lower – the UK and Switzerland are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.430, up +17.7 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.550%, up +12.4 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.799%, up +16.5 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.421, up from -0.381.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.154, down 0.173.
  • VIX
    • At 15.25 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 16.92 on April 4; low = 12.40 on March 21; Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 5 was a Bearish Engulfing with a long lower shadow near all-time highs.
  • Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 100% extension target around 4901.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below the %D from above 90.
    • RSI-9 is above 75.
  • The week was down -50.01 or -1.0%; the 5-week ATR is 108.90.
  • Third down week in the last five weeks and fourth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5204.78, R1=5263.51, R2=5322.67; S1=5145.62, S2=5084.22; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small red candle above previous day’s Piercing candle but within the real body of Thursday’s large Bearish Engulfing candle.
  • Moving up within an upsloping channel since late October 2023.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D from near zero.
    • RSI-9 has bounced up to above 55 from 40; below 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving within a trading range between 5333.50 and 5167.75 since early-March.
    • RSI-21 has been moving with 50 and 60 since Friday.
    • At/above EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving within a trading range between 5272.50 and 5237.00 since 11:00 AM on Friday.
    • RSI-21 has been moving between 50 and 60 since 10:30 AM on Friday.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 7:00 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band is expanding a bit since 7.00 AM.
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, April 8 in mostly lower volume. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. The major indices opened flat and then mostly traded sideways within a narrow range for the rest of the day.

Five S&P sectors – Staples, Energy, Industrials, Technology, and Healthcare – closed lower. The dollar index was down, the energy futures were mixed, precious and industrial metals closed higher. and the soft commodities closed mixed. The bonds fell and the US Treasury Yields closed up.

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