The large cap indices – S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) – are in confirmed uptrend along with the tech-heavy NASADAQ Composite. Their all three timeframes – monthly, weekly and daily – are showing varying degree of uptrend and bullish chart formations. The broader market index, Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, is also…
Trading is a serious and a funny business. On the one hand it requires a tremendous amount of patience, subject knowledge, skills and experience. On the other hand it also requires a good amount of luck although many will say this for the luck part. Similarly there are legions of past, current and wannabe traders who…
Paraphrasing an old adage, the economic expansions do not die of old-age and the current expansion, even though it has become the longest in the U.S history, is in no danger of ending anytime soon. Another old adage is that the stock market is not the economy and the economy is not the stock market,…
Note: The charts and data are as of Friday April 5, 2019. To enlarge please click on charts. International Equities World equities are on an upswing. The S&P 500 stumbled a bit in the early part of 2018 and then again in Q4 too but since then it is rising consistently (see Chart 1) It…
Intermarket US Dollar ($USD) has been mostly rising since early February 2018 (Chart 1) after making a low of 88.15. On relative basis, the Dollar Index is out-performing Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (Chart 2). U.S. Treasury Bonds ($USB) have been mostly declining since June 2017 from a high of 176.06 but since October 2018, they have been staging a rally, after…
S&P 500 Current Trend: Confirmed Uptrend Monthly Up-sloping channel; at the median of a regression channel RSI made a Bearish Divergence in September 2018 and is below a downtrend line since Weekly Potential emergence of Arthur Merrill’s W7 or W11 or W12 wave patterns RSI-9 made a Bearish Divergence on 17-Sep-18; trying to break above a downtrend line; coming…
Turmoil In the Equity Markets The second week of the Q4 of 2018 saw the biggest decline for S&P 500 since the week of March 23, 2018 (see Fig. 1). What is more concerning is that 14-week RSI made a bearish divergence during the week of September 17, when the index made a new all time high. In…
What To Expect at Next Week’s Fed Meeting This coming week the Federal Reserve is going to conduct the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, its sixth of the year, over a two-day period, followed by a press conference at 2:00 PM on Wednesday September 26th. This will be the third meeting of the year with a press-conference.…
August Housing Starts Better Than Estimated The Housing Starts for August, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, came at 1, 282,000 units, which is +9.2% above July’s revised rate of 1,174,00 units and better than what the market was expecting, which was 1.24 Million units. The single family units starts increased by +1.9% in August…
The US Economy Is Doing Great The US economy is strong and the major indicators gauging its health are trending higher. Fig. 1 shows that the five major economic indicators – Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Disposal Personal Income and the Per Capita GDP – indexed to just before the start of 2001 recession are…