Monthly Chart Analysis Current Status: Last Update on Tuesday August 01, 2017 Current Trend: Confirmed Uptrend Last Pattern: Double Bottom (or horizontal Channel) (broken out in July 2016) Previous Pattern: Rectangle (broken in Apr-13) Current Streak: 4 Up months Last Six Months 5 Up months Last High 2484.04 (Jul-17) High Month Low Month Last Swing 2193.81 Aug-16 2083.79…
Economy The Real GDP continues its uptrend since bottoming in Feb-2009 (Chart 1). The Total Employment and Real Retail and Food Services Sales have also maintained their uptrend during this period. The Unemployment Rate has maintained down trend. Industrial production rose from Jun-2009 to Dec-2014. It then declined till Mar-2016. Since then it has resumed…
Economy The U.S. economy is humming along. The pace of growth is not brisk or very satisfactory but it is also not alarming. The real GDP, total non-farm payroll and retail sales are maintaining their growth trajectory. The unemployment level continues to decline and the industrial production has seemingly arrested it decline and is levelling off…
Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index, DX #F, has been declining since January 2017 when it reached the highest level since 2003 (Chart 1). During 1990s, the index has risen from a low of 78.43, in 1992, to a high of121.90 in 2001. The up trend reversal occurred after a near triple bottom pattern – two other…
A research paper by Ben Jacobsen and Cherry Y. Zhang of Massey University of New Zealand demonstrates that monthly seasonality effect is sample specific. They found that the strategy of ‘Sell in May and Go Away‘ beats the market more that 80% of times over -year horizons. Another aspect of this strategy is that during this time, bonds usually outperform…
U.S. GDP is growing at a modest pace and the economic expansion is expected to continue, albeit, slowly. The recession signals are benign and the economy is not over heating. This combination supports an environment for cautious and gradual Fed Funds rate hikes.
Consumer Staples was the best sector over the past 30 days followed by Technology. Defensive sectors are underperforming since November. Industrials, Technology and Financials are showing relative strengths.
Gold’s demand is highest in three years but supply is highest in seven. It bottomed in November 2016 and is on a short upswing since then. Gold ETF, GLD, is doing slightly better than SPDR S&P 500, SPY, recently. The gold miners ETF, GDX, is doing better than GLD and the gold junior miners ETF, GDXJ, is doing better than GDX.
Germany German XETRA DAX broke above a symmetrical triangle on weekly timeframe in early August 2016, by rising above 10500.00 (Chart 1). From August to November 2016 it stayed within a horizontal trading range with an upper limit of 10830.00 and a lower limit of 10170.00. In early December it broke above that trading range. The 100%…
The U.S. economy has been growing for the past few years, albeit, at a slow rate. Many have attributed the sluggish growth to secular stagnation due to weak household demand, impact of structural changes on employment, weak private investment, political gridlock and global slowdown. Some of these factors will last for many years and some may see up-and-down movement.…
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