Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures have been moving sideways to up since 4:00 PM between 5272.00 and 5257.75.
• Futures markets are awaiting the CPI report at 8:30 AM.
• The odds are for a sideways move with elevated volatility. Watch for a break above 5274.25 or a break below 5257.0 for clarity.
• The major economic data report due during the day:
  • CPI m/m (0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Core CPI m/m (0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • CPI y/y (3.5% vs. 3.4% est.; prev. 3.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Final Wholesale Inventories (0.5% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 10:00 AM.

• 8:30 AM Update: Following hotter than expected CPI data, the S&P future declined more than 100 points from the pre-report release high of 5281.50 turning the market sentiments to bearish.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5192.39, 5174.93, and 5160.78.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5224.81, 5236.77, and 5251.03.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5274.25, the high at 9:30 AM on Tuesday, and 5257.75, the low at 6:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2024) closed at 5260.00, and the index closed at 5209.91 – a spread of about +50.00 points; the futures closed at 5260.25; the fair value is -0.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +7.25, Dow by +69, and NASDAQ by +20.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai and Tokyo closed down; Hong Kong, Sydney, and Mumbai closed up; Seoul and Singapore were closed.
• European markets are mostly lower – the UK and Switzerland are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.504, up +26.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.502%, up +10.7 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.753%, up +15.2 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.249, up from -0.363.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.002, down 0.157.
• VIX
  • At 15.18 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 16.92 on April 4; low = 12.40 on March 21; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday, April 9 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. The major indices opened flat and then moved sideways to down before staging a small rally in the last hour of trading. The day’s price action was narrow.

All but two S&P sectors – Industrials and finals – closed higher. The dollar index closed up, the energy futures closed mixed, precious and industrial metals closed higher. and the soft commodities closed mostly lower. The bonds rose and the US Treasury Yields closed down.