Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM, forming a Cup-with-Handl pattern, albeit a very small handle; A break above 4002.25 will complete the pattern- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 3991.25 for a change of sentiments
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- Final Service PMI ( 50.5 est.; prev. 50.5) at 9:45 AM
- ISM Services PMI ( 54.2 est.; prev. 55.2 ) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
|
|
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3964.90, 3939.12, and 3928.16
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3990.84, 4000.470, and 4018.05
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4002.50, the high at 7:00 AM, and a break below 3991.25, the low at 5:45 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 3986.25, and the index closed at 3981.35 – a spread of about +5.00 points; the futures closed at 3984.75; the fair value is +1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.25, Dow by +80, and NASDAQ by +31.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Singapore was down
- European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
|
|
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are mostly higher
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.073, up +23.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 4.021%, up +11.7 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.904%, up +23.8 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.831, down from -0.823
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.052, down from 0.061
- VIX
- At 19.48 @ 7:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 23.63 on February 22; low = 18.11 on February 15
- Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
|
Daily |
|
2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
|
30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
Previous Session
Most major indices opened lower and traded sideways until 1:30 PM before moving higher. Most commodities closed lower – Crude Oil, Platinum, Palladium, Wheat, and Soybeans closed higher. Only two S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary and Financials – closed lower.
From Briefing.com:
[…] The 10-yr note yield, which hit 4.00% overnight after the eurozone reported core CPI was up a record 5.6% year-over-year in February versus 5.3% in January, settled the day up eight basis points to 4.07%.
[…]Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain today led by utilities (+1.8%) and information technology (+1.3%). The financials (-0.5%) and consumer discretionary (-0.3%) sectors were the lone holdouts in negative territory by the close.
[…][…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +9.5% YTD
- Russell 2000: +8.0% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +7.8% YTD
- S&P 500: +3.7% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.4% YTD
[…]
- Q4 Productivity-Rev. 1.7% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%); Prior 3.0%; Q4 Unit Labor Costs-Rev. 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%); Prior 1.1%
- […]
- Weekly Initial Claims 190K (Briefing.com consensus 197K); Prior 192K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.655 mln; Prior was revised to 1.660 mln from 1.654 mln
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC +0.7%
- Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Shanghai -0.1%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +0.38 @ 78.07
- Nat Gas -0.05 @ 2.90
- Gold -2.80 @ 1842.70
- Silver -0.16 @ 20.97
- Copper -0.08 @ 4.08