Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower 8:30 AM; declined more than 40 points since the release of the CPI report at 8:30 AM- The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 4577.50 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- CPI ( 0.6% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI ( 0.6% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (223K vs. 227K est.; prev. 239K) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4547.00, 4531.32, 4494.38
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4568.13, 4577.24, and 4595.31
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4577.50, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 4534.75, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4579.50 and the index closed at 4587.18 – a spread of about -7.75 points; futures closed at 4577.75 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -32.75; Dow by -95; and NASDAQ by -173.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down - EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
- Dollar index
- INR/USD
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are mixed
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.929%, up +8.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 2.232%, up +6.5 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 1.345%, up +19.8 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.584, down from 0.701
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.303, down from 0.319
- VIX
- At 20.58 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 26.26 on February 4; low = 20.46 on February 2
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on Wednesday, as investors were encouraged about the COVID-19 outlook and the ability for the market to hold onto early gains. The Nasdaq Composite (+2.1%) and Russell 2000 (+1.9%) each rose about 2.0% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%. […] All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher after registering most, if not all, of their gains at the open. The communication services (+2.5%), real estate (+2.4%), information technology (+2.3%), and materials (+2.1%) sectors gained more than 2.0%. The consumer staples sector (+0.02%) closed fractionally higher.
[…]The 10-yr yield decreased three basis points to 1.93% amid a strong $37 billion 10-yr note auction
[…]The 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 1.34%,
[…]The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 95.54. WTI crude futures increased 0.3%, or $0.22, to $89.65/bbl.
Separately, the Nasdaq 100 (+2.1%) closed above its 200-day moving average (15,048) after seeing technical resistance at that level earlier in the day.
[…][…]
- Wholesale inventories increased 2.2% m/m in December (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%) following a revised 1.7% increase (from 1.4%) in November.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 8.1% following a 12.0% increase in the prior week.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.6% YTD
- S&P 500 -3.8% YTD
- Russell 2000 -7.2% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite -7.4% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +1.6%, FTSE +1.0%, CAC +1.5%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +2.1%, Shanghai +0.8%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +0.16 @ 89.48
- Nat Gas -0.24 @ 3.99
- Gold +4.00 @ 1833.60
- Silver +0.02 @ 23.27
- Copper +0.16 @ 4.63