Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower- The odds are for a down with elevated volatility; good chance of sideways to up move from pre-open levels around 4355.00 — watch for a break above 4373.25
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims 348K vs. 362K est.; prev. 377K) at 8:30 AM
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (19.4 vs. 23.2 est.; prev. 21.9) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4350.06, 4323.30, and 4312.15
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4373.00, 4397.59, and 4423.93
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4373.25, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 4347.75, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4395.50 and the index closed at 4400.27 – a spread of about -4.75 points; futures closed at 4394.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -32.50; Dow by -304; and NASDAQ by -84.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher – Mumbai was closed for trading;
- European markets are lower;
- Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up Down - Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- INR/USD
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- Commodities (from two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower
- Precious metals are lower
- Industrial metals are lower
- Most soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.237%, up +5.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 1.870%, up +3.0 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 0.209%, up +2.9 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.028, up from 1.004
- VIX
- At 24.33 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 25.09 on July 19; low = 15.19 on August 13
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly |
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Wednesday amid a flush of selling interest into the close on no specific news. […] The Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.1%), and Russell 2000 (-0.8%) declined between 0.8-1.1%.
Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors declined at least 1.0%, including energy (-2.4%), which fell more than 2.0%. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.2%) was the lone holdout amid some relief in retail stocks and Tesla (TSLA 688.99, +23.28, +3.5%).
[…]The Treasury market was well behaved throughout the session. The 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.27%, and the 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.21%. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 93.15. WTI crude futures fell 1.7%, or $1.16, to $65.44/bbl, which reflecting lingering growth concerns.
[…][…]
- Total housing starts declined 7.0% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.534 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.610 million) while building permits increased 2.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.635 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.610 million).
- […]
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 3.9% following a 2.8% increase in the prior week.
- Weekly crude oil inventories decreased by 3.23 mln barrels after decreasing by 447,000 barrels during the previous week.
- S&P 500 +17.2% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.2% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +12.7% YTD
- Russell 2000 +9.3% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE -0.2%,CAC -0.7%
- Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai +1.1%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil -1.61 @ 65.00
- Nat Gas +0.03 @ 3.85
- Gold +1.60 @ 1787.90
- Silver -0.13 @ 23.49
- Copper -0.09 @ 4.12