Morning Notes – Wednesday September 19, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are little changed; at a downtrend line from Tuesday’s high Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2905.75 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Building Permits (1.23M vs. 1.31M est.) at 8:30 AM Housing Starts (1.28M vs. 1,24M est.) at 8:30 AM Markets Around The World Markets in…

Morning Notes – Tuesday September 18, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are little changed; at a resistance level Odds are for a down day to sideways move; watch for break above 2904.00 for change of fortune No key economic data due: Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul closed up; Sydney, Singapore and Mumbai closed…

Morning Notes – Monday September 17, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; a symmetrical triangle is emerging on 15-minute chart; Odds are for a sideways; watch for break above 2910.25 and below 2904.50 for clarity Key economic data due: Empire State Manufacturing Index (19.0 vs. 23.2 est.) at 8:30 AM Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney…

Advanced Retail Sales – August 2018

Key takeaway is that the retail sales were softer in August but the trend is still positive. Consumers maybe pausing after a strong spending in July. The seasonally adjusted Advanced Retail Sales for the month of August 2018 came a bit softer than expected. The advanced estimates came at $509.0 billion, which is an increase…

Morning Notes – Friday September 14, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; declining from all time high of 2917.25 at 3:30 AM Breaking below above an descending triangle/double top on 6-minute chart Odds are for a sideways to an up day; watch for break above 2917.25 and below 2909.50 for clarity Key economic data due: Retail Sales (0.3% vs. 0.5% ets.) at 8:30 AM…

Consumer Price Index – August 2018

Key Takeaway: there was a moderation in the year-over-year growth rate for CPI – both Core and Headline – but that is unlikely to change Fed’s intention of two more rate hikes this year The Consumer Price Index increased by +0.2% in August on seasonally adjusted basis as compared to the expected increase of +0.3%…

Morning Notes – Thursday September 13, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; breaking above an ascending triangle on 30-minute chart Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2889.00 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Bank of England Policy Summary and Bank Rate at 7:00AM CPI (est. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM Core CPI (est. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM…

Morning Notes – Wednesday September 12, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving lower from a high of 2895.25 at 4:30 AM Within a trading range between 2886.00 and 2895 since 11:30 AM on Tuesday Odds are for a sideways to an up day; watch for break above 2892.5 and break below 2883.00 for clarity Key economic data due: PPI (-0.1% vs. 0.2% est.)…

Analyzing The U.S. Economy

The US Economy Is Doing Great The US economy is strong and the major indicators gauging its health are trending higher. Fig. 1 shows that the five major economic indicators – Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Disposal Personal Income and the Per Capita GDP – indexed to just before the start of 2001 recession are…

The Output Gap

The output gap represents the difference between the two measures of GDP – real and potential – in percentage term. This measure turned negative in Q1 of 2008 and it stayed below zero till the Q2 2017. The Real potential GDP is the CBO’s estimate of the output the economy would produce with a high rate…