Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday July 24, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  •   S&P Futures are higher; moving up from a low of 2792.50 at 10:00 PM on Sunday;
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2811.00 for change of fortune
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.959%, down from July 23 close of 2.965%;
    • 30-years is at 3.093%, down from 3.104%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.633%, unchanged
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.326, down from 0.332

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2804.26, 2795.14 and 2789.24
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2812.05, 2816.74 and 2827.25
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2819.50, the high of 11:00 PM on July 23 and break below 2811.00, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2808.00 and the index closed at 2806.98 – a spread of about +1.00 points; futures closed at 2812.00 for the day; the fair value is -4.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside  – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.50; Dow by +114.00; and NASDAQ by +12.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
  • Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A spinning top green candle with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow; a bullish engulfing candle
  • %K is crossing above %D just below 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a downtrend line from a high of 2818.25 on July 18; breaking above the high
  • RSI-9 rising from a low of 32.56 at 8:00 PM on July 22 after making a bullish divergence; crossed above 75 and back below it
  • Above 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a descending triangle; 100% extension target is near 2830.00; also broke above a triple bottom with a 100% extension target near 2828.00
  • RSI-9 is rising since 11:00 PM on July 22; crossed above 65 and now back below it
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up 1:45 AM on July 23;
  • The band contracted during Asian session; expanding since 2:45 AM
  • RSI mostly between 40 and 65 since 00:15 AM on July 23;
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 7:30 AM
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday July 23. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down. The markets declined at the open and made the lows for the day in the first hour of trading. The major indices gradually drifted higher after 10:30 AM and closed near the high for the day. The volume was lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Finance
  2. Technology
  3. Heath Care
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Utility
  7. Real Estate
  8. Telecom

 

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