Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday May 4, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower;
  • Odds are for a volatile day – watch for break above 2629.00 and below 2616.75 for clarity
  • Key economic data due
    • Non-Farm Employment Change (164K vs. 190K est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Average Hourly Earnings (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Rate (3.9% vs. 4.0% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were down – Tokyo was closed
  • European markets are mostly higher – France is lower
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee (unch.)
    • NatGas (unch.)
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.922%, down from May 3 close of 2.946%;
    • 30-years is at 3.100%, down from 3.121%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.481%, up from 2.477%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.441, down from 0.469

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2621.96, 2594.62 and 2586.27
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2637.14,  2660.87 and 2665.91
  •  Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2629.00, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2616.75, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2627.50 and the index closed at 2629.67 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2627.50 for the day; the fair value is +5.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.50; Dow by -101.00; and NASDAQ by -33.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Down
  • 6-Min: Side-Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 27 was a doji with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point=2655.38, R1=2698.08, R2=2726.26; S1=2627.20, S2=2584.50; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • An almost Dragonfly Doji candlestick line with very small upper shadow and long lower shadow; made a low of 2594.62, near the 20-day low of 2586.27 made on April 6
  • Broke below a symmetrical triangle that has been in formation since the all time high on January 26
  • Below 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Bounce from the low of 2591.25 on Amy 22636.25, at the downtrend line from April 18 high; price declining around the downtrend line
  • RSI-9 is mostly below 50 since 8:00 AM on April 30
  • At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Breaking bellow a horizontal trading range that was in effect since 1:00 PM on May 3
  • RSI moving around 50 with down bias; hasn’t broken above 65 for a while but broke below 40 many times
  • At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 7:30 PM to 8:15 AM following an exploded band during the NYSE session
  • The band was narrow from 7:30 PM to 8:15 AM; expanding to the downside
  • RSI fallen below 25 from just above 50 at 4:00 AM; mostly below 65 since 5:00 AM on May 2
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K below 20
  • Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Thursday May 3 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.

Market declined at the open and reached multi-days low before turning around at 10:30 AM and then mostly moved higher and closing near the highs for the day.

 

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Materials
  2. Industrials
  3. Technology
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Finance
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  8. Telecom
Exit mobile version