S&P Futures have been drifting higher since 6:30 PM.
The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 5274.25 and 5267.75 for a change of sentiments.
The major economic data report due during the day:
Unemployment Claims (213K est.; prev. 210K) at 8:30 AM.
Trade Balance (-66.9B est.; prev. -67.4B) at 8:30 AM.
Weekly: Up
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Side-Down
30-Min: Down-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5228.75, 5215.83, and 5198.04.
Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5235.64, 5247.24, and 5263.95.
The key levels for E-mini futures are 5285.75, the high at 7:00 AM, and 5274.75, the low at 2:15 AM.
Pre-Open
On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2024) closed at 5265.25, and the index closed at 5211.49 – a spread of about +53.75 points; the futures closed at 5266.50; the fair value is -1.25.
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +15.75, Dow by +98, and NASDAQ by +73.00.
Markets Around the World
Markets in the East closed higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed.
European markets are mostly higher – France and Italy are lower.
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are higher.
Precious metals are higher.
Industrial metals are higher.
Soft commodities are mixed.
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 4.355, up +8.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
The 30-year is at 4.509%, up +5.4 basis points.
The 2-year yield is at 4.681%, up +7.6 basis points.
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.326, up from -0.338.
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.154, down +0182.
VIX
At 14.19 @ 7:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
Recent high = 16.04 on March 11; low = 12.40 on March 21; Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on March 29 was a green spinning top candle at the all-time highs with small upper and lower shadows.
Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 100% extension target around 4901.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; near 100.
RSI-9 is above 80.
The week was up +20.17 or +0.4%; the 5-week ATR is 101.93.
Third up week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks
The weekly pivot point=5240.87, R1=5278.33, R2=5302.30; S1=5216.90, S2=5179.44; No pivot levels were breached
Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A relatively small Bullish Engulfing candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow following a Dragonfly Doji that gapped down forming an island below all-time high.
Moving up within an upsloping channel since late October 2023.
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D after making a Bearish Divergence
RSI-9 is making a coiling pattern since January; turned up to 55; below 8-day EMA.
Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Moving higher within an upsloping Linear Regression channel of one StdDev since early-January. The price broke below the lower band of the channel on April 2 before rising up into it.
RSI-21 has bounced up to above 60 from below 20 on April 2.
Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Broke above a down sloping flag at 9:30 AM on Wednesday – the 100% extension target around 5272.00 is achieved and the 161.8% extension target is around 5290.00.
RSI-21 has been moving between 50 and 60 since 9:30 AM on Wednesday.
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting higher since 9:00 PM.
The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 7:00 AM.
Bias: Up-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, April 3 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down. Tow Dow Jones averages – Industrials and Transports – traded in higher volume. The major indices opened higher and made day’s highs by mid-day before moving sideways to down for the rest of the day.
All but four S&P sectors – Staples, Financials, Utilities, and Healthcare – closed higher. The dollar index closed down, the energy futures closed mixed, metals closed higher. and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury Yields closed mixed.