Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM. Futures broke below a sidewyas move since 3:30 AM between 4420.50 and 4428.00- The odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for a break above 4428.00 and a break below 4414.00 for clarity
- The major economic data report due during the day:
- CPI m/m ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI m/m ( 0.4% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- CPI y/y (4.0% vs. 4.1% est.; prev. 4.9%) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4363.56, 4356.12, and 4349.31
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4375.37, 4385.83, and 4407.74
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 4428.00, the high at 4:45 AM, and 4414.00, the low at 2:45 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4416.25, and the index closed at 4369.01 – a spread of about +47.25 points; the futures closed at 4416.75; the fair value is -0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.00, Dow down by -77, and NASDAQ up by +24.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed lower; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed higher
- European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.802, up +10.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.918%, up +1.5 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.684%, up +23.6 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.882, down from -0.748
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.116, down from +0.203
- VIX
- At 14.54 @ 6:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 20.81 on May 24; low = 13.50 on June 9
- Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
[…] The major indices all closed near their best levels of the day, paced by the Russell 2000 (+1.2%).
[…]The cyclical S&P 500 materials (+2.3%) and industrials (+1.2%) sectors saw the biggest gains today. The consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) and information technology sector (+0.7%), which was boosted by Oracle (ORCL 116.68, +0.25, +0.2%) after its earnings report, were also top performers today. The countercyclical utilities sector (-0.1%), meanwhile, was the lone laggard to close with a loss.
[…]
The market-cap weighted S&P 500 rose 0.7% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 1.0%.
[…]The 2-yr note yield rose 11 basis points to 4.70% and the 10-yr note yield rose seven basis points to 3.84%.
[…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +29.7% YTD
- S&P 500: +13.8% YTD
- Russell 2000: +7.7% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +6.3% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4.0% YTD
[…]
- The May NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey rose to 89.4 from 89.0 in April
- Total CPI was up 0.1% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% month-over-month, as expected, driven by a 0.6% increase in the shelter index and a 4.4% increase in the index for used cars and trucks.
- On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 4.0%, versus 4.9% in April, marking the smallest change since the 12 months ending March 2021. Core CPI rose 5.3% year-over-year, versus 5.5% in April, with the shelter index (+8.0%) accounting for over 60% of the total increase.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.8%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.6%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.8%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai +0.2%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +2.38 @ 69.47
- Nat Gas +0.06 @ 2.34
- Gold -11.80 @ 1957.00
- Silver -0.31 @ 23.75
- Copper +0.08 @ 3.83