Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; trending up since 4:15 AM on Monday- up 30 points since 2:00 AM- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3989.75 for a change of sentiments
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- Existing Home Sales ( 4.19M est.; prev. 4.00M) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3969.76, 3956.62, and 3923.38
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4017.81, 4047.00, and 4077.84
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4035.00, a high at 12:00 PM on March 9, and a break below 3989.75, a low at 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 3984.50, and the index closed at 3951.57 – a spread of about +33.00 points; the futures closed at 3983.00; the fair value is +1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +32.75, Dow by +275, and NASDAQ by +75.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher – Tokyo was closed for trading
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.573, down -41.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.724%, down -18.9 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 3.991%, down -91.0 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.418, up from -0.918
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.151, up from -0.070
- VIX
- At 22.75 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 3
- Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
[…] Mega cap stocks, which enjoyed a leadership role last week, were relative underperformers today
[…]The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was up a modest 0.2% versus the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which rose 1.3%. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, pushing above its 200-day moving average (3,935), which pivoted from resistance to support.
[…]The Russell 2000 rose 1.1% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 rose 1.7%.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with gains ranging from 0.2% (information technology) to 2.1% (energy).
The 2-yr note yield rose 10 basis points today to 3.92% and the 10-yr note yield rose nine basis points to 3.48%, as market participants anxiously await the FOMC decision on March 22.
[…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +11.6% YTD
- S&P 500: +2.9% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -0.7% YTD
- Russell 2000: -0.9% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.7% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +1.1%, FTSE +0.9%, CAC +1.3%
- Asia: Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai -2.7%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +0.80 @ 67.67
- Nat Gas -0.10 @ 2.36
- Gold +7.70 @ 1983.10
- Silver +0.15 @ 22.65
- Copper +0.06 @ 3.96