S&P Futures are a bit higher at 8:15 AM, declining since 3:30 AM from 3990.25, down more than 15 points
The odds are for a down-to-sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3990.25 and a break below 3960.50 for clarity
No key economic data report is due during the day:
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Side-Down
30-Min: Side-Down
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Side
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3955.77, 3945.24, and 3933.34
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3984.63, 3997.60, and 4012.27
The key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3984.25, the high at 5:30 AM, and a break below 3969.25, the low of 7:00 PM
Pre-Open
On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3968.50, and the index closed at 3963.94 – a spread of about +4.50 points; the futures closed at 3970.25; the fair value is -1.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.75, Dow by +18, and NASDAQ by +51.75
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East mainly closed higher – Tokyo closed down
European markets are higher
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
INR/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are mixed
Precious metals are lower
Industrial metals are lower
Soft commodities are mostly lower
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 3.703%, down -16.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
The 30-year is at 3.750%, down -30.8 basis points;
The 2-year yield is at 4.442%, up +5.1 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.739, down from -0.526
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.047, down from 0.193
VIX
At 22.08 @ 7:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 20.31 on November 24
Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on November 25 was a green candle following a Doji, indicating a bullish turn following an indecisive week
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D near 90;
RSI-9 is above 55
The week was up +60.78 or +1.5%; the 5-week ATR is 171.53
An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks;
The weekly pivot point=3997.83, R1=402.31, R2=4098.51; S1=3961.63, S2=3897.15; T1 pivot level was breached
Above 10-week EMA, below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A red candle with almost no upper and lower shadows that gapped down;
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D
RSI-9 turned down below 60; below 8-day EMA;
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; below 200-day SMA;
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Drifting lower and making a rounding top pattern since 10:00 AM on November 23
RSI-21 is around 35
Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Moving down since 6:00 PM on Sunday following a gap-down open for the week.
RSI-21 is around 45
At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 11:30 PM
The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 6:30 AM
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, November 28, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume.
The major indices gapped down at the open, and then most traded lower for the rest of the day. Al S&P sectors closed down.