Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; down more than 45 points since 3:30 AM; broke below an upsloping flag at 8:00 AM – the 61.8% extension target is near 3881.00, and the 100% extension target is ear 3865.00- The odds are for a down with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3906.75 and 3916.50
- The key economic data report due during the day:
- Building Permits ( 1.52M vs., 1.50M est.; prev. 1.40M) at 8:30 AM
- Housing Starts ( 1.58M vs. 1.45M est.; prev. 1.40M ) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3863.00, 3854.71, and 3838.50
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3886.68, 3900.45, and 3909.00
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3906.75, the high of 7:15 AM and a break below 3885.25, the low of 8:15 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3918.75, and the index closed at 3899.89 – a spread of about +18.75 points; the futures closed at 3917.25; the fair value is +1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -24.75, Dow by -187, and NASDAQ by -82.50
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower
- Precious metals are mixed
- Industrial metals are higher
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.559%, up +21.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.580%, up +9.8 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 3.959%, up +44.6 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.400, down from -0.173
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.021, down from 0.142
- VIX
- At 26.28 @ 7:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 29.06 on July 13; low = 21.67 on August 26
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
[…] The main indices danced around the unchanged mark for most of the afternoon before catching a bid in the final hour of trade, helped primarily by an uptick in the mega cap stocks and other issues. The S&P 500 broke out of a narrow trading range but found resistance at the 3,900 level, closing a whisker shy of that important level.
[…]The 2-yr and 10-yr note yields reached their highest levels since 2007 and 2011, respectively. The 2-yr note yield reached 3.97% before settling at 3.94% and the 10-yr note yield reached 3.51% before settling at 3.49%.
[…]Decliners outpaced advancers by a 4-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq while advancers led decliners by a roughly 3-to-2 margin at the NYSE.
Only two S&P 500 sectors closed with a loss, health care (-0.5%) and real estate (-0.2%). The gainers were led by materials (+1.6%) and consumer discretionary (+1.3%).
[…]Today’s economic data was limited to the September NAHB Housing Market Index, which came in at 46 (Briefing.com consensus 48) after the prior reading of 49. A number below 50 for this report is indicative of declining confidence.
[…]Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.6% YTD
S&P 400: -15.2% YTD
S&P 500: -18.2% YTD
Russell 2000: -19.3% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -26.3% YTDOverseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE market closed, CAC -0.3%
- Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng -1.0%, Shanghai -0.4%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil -0.44 @ 84.96
- Nat Gas +0.01 @ 7.81
- Gold -3.40 @ 1680.30
- Silver -0.05 @ 19.42
- Copper -0.02 @ 3.51