Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; trending up since 8:45 PM on Sunday; new leg since 5:00 AM- The odds are for an up day with good chance of sideways to up move from pre-open levels around 2860.00 – watch for break below 2832.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Trade Balance ( -44.4B vs. -41.0B est.; prev. -39.8B ) at 8:30 AM
- Final Services PMI ( 27.0 est.; prev. 27.0) at 9:45 AM
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ( 37.5 est.; prev. 52.5) at 10:00 AM
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism ( 35.s est.; prev. 47.8)
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2844.24, 2817.12 and 2808.53
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2869.09, 2892.47 and 2917.80
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2865.00, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2832.50, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2833.00 and the index closed at 2842.74 – a spread of about -9.75 points; futures closed at 2825.25 for the day; the fair value is +7.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +36.25; Dow by +305 and NASDAQ by +119.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Mumbai was down; Shanghai, Tokyo and Seoul were closed for trading
- European markets are higher
- Currencies:
Up Down - Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- INR/USD
- EUR/USD
- USD/CAD
- Commodities:
Up Down - Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
- Gold
- Palladium
- Bond
- 10-yrs yield closed at 0.637%, down from May 1 close of 0.642%;
- 30-years is at 1.297%, up from 1.278%
- 2-years yield is at 0.188% down from 0.200%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.449 up from 0.442
- VIX
- Is at 34.17 down -1.80 from May 4 close; above 5-day SMA;
- Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18; recent high 47.77 on April 21, recent low 30.54 on April 28
- Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly |
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (e-mini future) |
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30-Minute (e-mini future) |
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15-Minute (e-mini future) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 advanced 0.4% on Monday, closing near session highs, as strength in the mega-cap technology stocks helped the market overcome an increase in U.S.-China tensions and cautious commentary from Warren Buffett.
The tech-sensitive Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2% to climb past the benchmark index, Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), and Russell 2000 (+0.3%).
[…]Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory, paced by the energy (+3.7%) and information technology (+1.4%) sectors. The industrials (-1.3%) and financials (-0.9%) sectors lagged the broader market.
[…]U.S. Treasuries posted small gains to begin the week, pushing yields slightly lower. The 2-yr yield declined three basis points to 0.17%, and the 10-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.64%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.5% to 99.54. WTI crude increased 3.0%, or $0.60, to $20.37/bbl.
Monday’s economic data was limited to the Factory Orders report, which declined 10.3 m/m in March (Briefing.com consensus -9.1%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.0%) in February.
• The key takeaway from the report is that it shows how quickly manufacturing activity dropped off as shutdown initiatives increased. That drop off should be even more pronounced in April.