Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM – moving sideways to down since 11:00 PM- The odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4131.75 and a break below 4117.75 for clarity
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- PPI m/m ( -0.5% vs. 0.0% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 8:30 AM
- Core PPI m/m ( -0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims ( 239K vs. 233K est.; prev. 228K) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4086.94, 4072.55, and 4056.18
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4106.50, 4127.00, and 4134.37
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4131.75, the high at 5:15 AM, and a break below 4117.75, the low at 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4120.75, and the index closed at 4091.95 – a spread of about +28.75 points; the futures closed at 4119.00; the fair value is +1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.25, Dow down by -15, and NASDAQ up by +5.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Sydney closed down
- European markets are mostly higher – Italy is lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly higher
- Soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.421, down -14.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.653%, down -12.5 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 3.970%, down -9.0 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.549, down from -0.494
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.231, up from +0.212
- VIX
- At 19.01 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
The day started on an upbeat note as investors digested the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged gains of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively, shortly after the open. […] Early gains dissipated, though, as mega cap stocks rolled over and as Treasury yields also climbed off their post-CPI lows. The 2-yr Treasury note yield, at 4.06% before the CPI report, settled the session at 3.97%. The 10-yr note yield, at 3.44% before the report, settled at 3.42%.
[…]Things rolled over again in the late afternoon with mega cap stocks leading that slide. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) declined 0.6% today.
[…]The industrials (+0.3%), energy (+0.1%), and materials (+0.1%) sectors led the outperformers. The consumer discretionary (-1.5%), communication services (-0.9%), and information technology (-0.6%) sectors were the top laggards, weighed down by mega cap weakness.
[…][…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +14.0% YTD
- S&P 500: +6.6% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +2.3% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.5% YTD
- Russell 2000: +0.7% YTD
[…]
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.3% with purchase applications jumping 8.0% while refinance applications were flat.
- Total CPI was up 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in February. Core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4%, as expected, following a 0.5% increase in February. Services inflation was up 0.3% month-over-month, versus up 0.5% in February, and up 7.3% year-over-year versus up 7.6% in February. Excluding shelter, services inflation was flat, compared to a 0.1% increase in February, and up 6.1% year-over-year versus up 6.9% in February. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 5.0%, versus up 6.0% in February. That is the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021. Core-CPI was up 5.6% year-over-year, versus up 5.5% in February.
- […]
- The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a build of 0.597 million barrels versus last week’s draw of 3.74 million barrels.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.1%
- Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Shanghai +0.4%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +1.69 @ 83.22
- Nat Gas -0.11 @ 2.09
- Gold +4.80 @ 2024.80
- Silver +0.27 @ 25.48
- Copper +0.06 @ 4.09