Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM – jumped p following the CPI report at 8:30 AM- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4138.50 for a change of sentiments
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- CPI m/m ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI m/m ( 0.4% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
- CPI y/y ( 5.0% vs. 5.1% est.; prev. 6.0%) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4133.13, 4105.36, and 4094.98
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4147.72, 4159.77, and 4176.54
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4177.25, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 4138.50, the low at 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4137.75, and the index closed at 4108.94 – a spread of about +28.75 points; the futures closed at 4136.50; the fair value is +1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +35.00, Dow by +220, and NASDAQ by +148.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed down
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly higher
- Soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.434, down -13.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.621%, down -16.2 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.024%, down -4.8 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.590, down from -0.508
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.187, down from +0.219
- VIX
- At 19.23 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
The major indices opened flat and then gradually traded higher until the final hour of trading, when they declined.
From Briefing.com:
[…] Some of the mega cap stocks were able to climb off their session lows as the broader market settled into a steady grind higher in the afternoon. The main indices took a sharp turn lower, though, with about 30 minutes left in the session
[…]The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) logged a 0.6% decline while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) gained 0.7%, reflecting underlying strength in the market. In turn, advancers led decliners by a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 5-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq.
Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain led by the cyclical energy (+0.9%), financial (+0.9%), materials (+0.7%), and industrial (+0.6%) sectors. Losses from their respective mega cap components drove the information technology (-1.0%), communication services (-0.4%), and consumer discretionary (flat) sectors to the bottom of the pack.
[…]Treasury yields settled somewhat higher in front of tomorrow’s inflation data. The 2-yr note yield rose five basis points to 4.05% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.43%.
[…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +15.0% YTD
- S&P 500: +7.0% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +2.8% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.6% YTD
- Russell 2000: +1.4% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC+0.9%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai -0.1%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +1.67 @ 81.53
- Nat Gas +0.03 @ 2.20
- Gold +15.40 @ 2020.00
- Silver +0.28 @ 25.21
- Copper +0.05 @ 4.03