Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM. Broken below an up-sloping flag – a break below 3977 will have a target around 3920.00- The odds are for a sideways to down day from the pre-open levels around 3990.00, with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4001.25 for a change of sentiments
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims ( 191K s. 198K est.; prev. 192K) at 8:30 AM
- Current Account ( -207B vs. -213B est.; prev. 2-219B) at 8:30 AM
- New Home Sales ( 650K est.; prev. 670K) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
|
|
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3936.34, 3923.38, and 3864.11
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3971.19, 3978.62, and 4006.28
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4001.25, a high at 4:45 AM, and a break below 3977.25, a low at 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 3969.00, and the index closed at 3936.97 – a spread of about +32.00 points; the futures closed at 3970.25; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +19.75, Dow by +56, and NASDAQ by +116.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed higher; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed lower
- European markets are lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
|
|
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are higher
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.488, down -48.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.698%, down -18.0 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 3.935%, down -108.0 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.447, up from -1.039
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.210, up from -0.098
- VIX
- At 21.82 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 3
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
|
Daily |
|
2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
|
30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
Previous Session
For most of the day, the major indices oscillated within a narrow range below the previous day’s close. The volatility increased after the FOMC decision at 2:00 PM. The indices turned down decisively in the last hour of trading. S&P 500 declined more than 100 points from its high at 2:45 PM. Most indices made Bearish Engulfing candlestick formations.
All S&P sectors closed down. Consumer Discretionary, XLY, performed the worst.
From Briefing.com:
[…] Bank stocks found themselves under renewed selling pressure, with losses compounding during and after the press conference.
[…]The S&P 500 retraced all of yesterday’s gains and closed just above its 200-day moving average (3,934).
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with sizable losses ranging from 0.9% (information technology) to 3.6% (real estate). Another notable laggard was the financial sector, down 2.4%.
Treasuries settled the session with gains across the curve. The 2-yr note yield fell 20 basis points and the 10-yr note yield fell 11 basis points to 3.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.9% to 102.38.
[…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +11.5% YTD
- S&P 500: +2.5% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -1.4% YTD
- Russell 2000: -1.9% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.4% YTD
[…]
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 3.0% with refinancing applications increasing 5.0% and purchase applications rising 2.0%
- Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 1.06 million barrels following a build of 1.55 million
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC +0.3%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.9%, Hang Seng +1.7%, Shanghai +0.3%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +1.31 @ 70.79
- Nat Gas -0.11 @ 2.34
- Gold +10.20 @ 1951.50
- Silver +0.40 @ 22.80
- Copper +0.04 @ 4.04