Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are little changed at 9:15 AM, moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Tuesday between 4041.50 and 4022.75- The market is awaiting the FOMC decision and the press conference
- The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4041.50 or a break below 4022.75 for clarity
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- FOMCE Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
- Federal Funds Rate ( 5.00% est.; prev. 4.75%) at 2:00 PM
- FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
- FOMCE Press Conference at 2:30 PM
Directional Bias Before Open:
|
|
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3995.08, 3971.19, and 3956.27
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4017.81, 4047.00, and 4077.84
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4041.50, a high at 7:15 AM, and a break below 4022.75, a low at 4:15 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4038.50, and the index closed at 4002.87 – a spread of about +35.50 points; the futures closed at 4035.75; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75, Dow up by +29, and NASDAQ down by -1.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
|
|
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are higher
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.606, down -36.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.737%, down -15.1 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.166%, down -73.5 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.560, up from -0.926
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.131, up from -0.087
- VIX
- At 21.01 @ 9:0 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 3
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
|
Daily |
|
2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
|
30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
Previous Session
The major indices gapped up at the open. NASDAQ Composite closed its gap, but S&P 500 did not. The indices closed near the high for the day.
All but three S&P sectors – Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Utilities – closed up.
From Briefing.com:
[…] The main indices maintained a position in positive territory throughout today’s session, led by gains in the bank stocks. With today’s move, the S&P 500 recouped the entirety of the ground that had been lost since March 8 when the SVB Financial blowup started to hit the scene.
[…]The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rose 5.3% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 5.8%.
[…]The 2-yr note yield rose 26 basis points to 4.18% and the 10-yr note yield rose 13 basis points to 3.61%.
[…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +13.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +4.3% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +0.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: +1.1% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.8% YTD
[…]
- Existing home sales surged 14.5% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.16 million) versus an unrevised 4.00 million in January. Sales increased on a month-over-month basis in February for the first time in 13 months. Total sales in February were down 22.6% from a year ago.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +1.8%, FTSE +1.8%, CAC +1.4%
- Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.6%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +1.81 @ 69.48
- Nat Gas +0.09 @ 2.45
- Gold -41.80 @ 1941.30
- Silver -0.25 @ 22.40
- Copper +0.04 @ 4.00