Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are a bit higher at 9:00 AM; futures moving within a range between 3931.00 and 3910.00 – near the lower end of the range- The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3911.00 for clarity
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- Existing Home Sales ( 3.95M est.; prev. 4.09M ) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3897,70, 3885.54, and 3877.29
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3915.45, 3926.59, and 3952.49
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 3931.00, the high at 8:00 AM, and a break below 3911.75, the low at 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 3916.75, and the index closed at 3898.85 – a spread of about +18.00 points; the futures closed at 3915.50; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.00, Dow down by -30, and NASDAQ up by +64.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai closed lower
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly higher
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.437, down -28.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.597%, down -20.1 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.140%, down -32.6 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.703, up from -0.746
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.160, up from 0.078
- VIX
- At 20.46 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 18.01 on January 13
- Sentiment: Risk-On-to-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
The indices opened down, then turned up after the first four of trading before giving up some of that in the final hour of trading. All but three S&P sectors – Energy, Healthcare, and Communications – closed lower.
From Briefing.com:
[…] Including today’s losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are still up 1.6% and 3.7%, respectively, this year.
[…]Most of the S&P 500 sectors traded down with the industrial (-2.1%) sector showing the steepest loss. Other influential laggards included the consumer discretionary (-1.7%), financial (-1.2%), and information technology (-1.1%) sectors.
The energy sector (+1.1%) led the outperformers amid rising oil prices. WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% to $80.73/bbl.
Treasury yields made relatively small upside moves today. The 2-yr note yield rose three basis points to 4.12% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.40%.
[…]
- Russell 2000: +4.3% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: +3.7% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +3.6% YTD
- S&P 500: +1.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.3% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
[…]
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 14 decreased by 15,000 to 190,000 (Briefing.com consensus 212,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 7 increased by 17,000 to 1.647 million.
- […]
- Total housing starts declined 1.4% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.382 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.355 million) while total building permits declined 1.6% month-over-month to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.330 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.370 million).
- […]
- The Philadelphia Fed Index fell to -8.9 in January (Briefing.com consensus -11.0) from -13.8 in December.
- Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a draw of 82 bcf versus a build of 11 bcf last week.
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a build of 8.41 million barrels after a build of 18.96 million barrels last week.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX -1.7%, FTSE -1.1%, CAC -1.9%
- Asia: Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai +0.5%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +1.17 @ 80.73
- Nat Gas -0.01 @ 3.11
- Gold +17.00 @ 1924.30
- Silver +0.24 @ 23.89
- Copper +0.02 @ 4.24