Morning Notes – Friday June 11, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher; near the upper bound of a Horizontal Channel between 4238.50 and 4224.50
• The odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for a break below 4225.25
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Prelim UoM Consument Sentiments ( 84.1 est.; prev. 82.9) at 10:00 AM
  • Prelim UoM Inflations Expectations ( prev. 4.6%) at 10:00AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure

120-Min: Side 30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4235.84, 4220.34, and 4215.66
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4249.74, 4265.82, and 4281.90
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4238.50, the high of 6:45 AM and break below 4227.25, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4229.25 and the index closed at 4239.18 – a spread of about -10.00 points; futures closed at 4228.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.50; Dow by +64, and NASDAQ by +16.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo, and Singapore closed lower; Hong Kong, Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed higher;
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index AUD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.459%, down -15.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.153%, down -13.7 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.153%, up +0.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.306, down from 1.458
• VIX
  • At 15.79 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  25.96 on May 19; low =  15.15 on June 8
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on May 28 was a small candle similar to a Doji candle at all-time highs with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; RSI (9) is just above 70 The week was up +25.78 or +0.6%; the 5-week ATR is 108.99 An up week; third in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks The weekly week pivot point=4210.65, R1=4253.36, R2=4276.84; S1=4187.17, S2=4144.46; R1 & S1 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily	A small spinning top candle at all-times highs; moving sideways for the past few days %K is crossing above %D above 80 RSI-9 is above 60; above 8-day EMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend Under Pressure – moving sideways
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since 2:00 PM on June 4 after breaking above a sideways move from 12:00 PM on May 24 RSI-21 is just above 50 At/above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since June 4; RSI-21 is moving around 50 since 4:30 PM on Thursday Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to up since 11:00 PM The Bollinger Band is expanding since 6:15 AM Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D lower Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, June 10 in higher volume. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. The major indices are near all-time highs but only S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made intraday and closing all-time highs. NYSE Composite made the all-time intraday high.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 gained 0.5% on Thursday, setting intraday and closing record highs in the process, as the market reacted positively to a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and a weekly initial claims trend that continued to improve. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) outperformed and closed near session highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased just 0.1% and the Russell 2000 decreased 0.7%. The underperformance of the Dow and Russell 2000, which are more cyclically-oriented, contradicted any growth optimism. Briefly, total CPI rose 0.6% m/m in May (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.7% m/m (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%). The year-over-year increases garnered the headlines, though, with total CPI up 5.0% and core CPI up 3.8%. In addition, weekly initial claims totaled 375,000 (Briefing.com consensus 365,000), which was its lowest level since March 14, 2020. […] Note, it didn’t start that way. The financials (-1.1%), materials (-0.6%), industrials (-0.5%), and energy (-0.1%) sectors, which closed lower today, were among the leaders shortly after the open. The Dow was up as much as 0.8% and the small-cap Russell 2000 was up as much as 0.5%. […] The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.15%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.1% to 90.06. WTI crude futures rose 0.6%, or $0.40, to $70.30/bbl. […] Russell 2000 +17.0% YTD S&P 500 +12.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.6% YTD Nasdaq Composite +8.8% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC -0.3% Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai +0.5% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.46 @ 70.23 Nat Gas +0.01 @ 3.15 Gold +4.60 @ 1898.20 Silver +0.09 @ 28.08 Copper -0.04 @ 4.49