Morning Notes – Wednesday April 14, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher
• The odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for a break above 4139.75 and a break below 4132.75 for clarity
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Import Prices ( 1.0% est.; prev. 1.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Beige Book at 2:00 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Resumed

120-Min: Up 30-Min: Up 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4128.99, 4118.21, and 4107.70
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4148.00, 4151.58, and 4161.58
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4139.75, the high of 3:00 PM on Tuesday and break below 4132.75, the low of 2:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 4132.50 and the index closed at 4141.59 – a spread of about -9.00 points; futures closed at 4132.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.75; Dow by +14, and NASDAQ by +49.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo was lower and Mumbai was closed
• European markets are mostly higher – Germany is lower
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD INR/USD	Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.623%, down -10.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.307%, down -8.9 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.157%, up +0.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.466, down from 1.578
• VIX
  • At 16.65 @ 7:45 AM; unchnaged from the last close; at/below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  23.55 on March 25; low =  16.20 on April 9
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Confirmed Uptrend March 2021 was a green candle with a small upper shadow and a lower shadow almost equal to the real body; at all-time closing and intra-month highs; Stochastic %K above %D near 100; RSI-9 near 75; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018 Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is resumed
Weekly:	The week ending on April 9 was a green candle breaking away from previous weeks; almost no upper and lower shadows; at all-time highs Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; near 100 RSI (9) is near 75 The week was up +108.93 or +2.7%; the 5-week ATR is 109.96 An up week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks The weekly week pivot point=4160.71, R1=4192.61, R2=4255.75; S1=4065.67, S2=4002.53; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily	A relatively small Spinning Top candle at all-time intraday and closing highs Broke above a symmetrical triangle at 3550.00 level on November 9; the 161.8% extension target near 4140.00 levels is achieved %K is below %D; near 100 RSI-9 is above 80; above 8-day EMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending up since 10:00 AM on March 25; at all-time highs; Broke above a down-sloping flag on March 26; the 100% extension target near 4100.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 4260.00 RSI-21 is around 65 after making few Bearish Divergences in the last few days Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since 2:30 PM on April 13; RSI-21 is near 60 Above EMA 20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 9:45 PM The Bollinger Band is relatively narrow and stable Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D above 80 Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, April 13 in mostly higher volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market closed higher and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. Indices mostly traded within a narrow range during the day.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 (+0.3%) set intraday and closing record highs on Tuesday, even after the FDA and CDC recommended that states pause use of Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ 159.48, -2.16, -1.3%) COVID-19 vaccine. The mega-caps and growth stocks did the heavy lifting, as long-term interest rates moved lower following better-than-feared CPI data for March. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.1% gain, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and Russell 2000 (-0.2%) nearly recouped all of their intraday losses. […] Sure, the cyclical financials (-0.9%), industrials (-0.5%), and materials (-0.2%) sectors closed lower, but losses were relatively tame in front of Q1 earnings from the banks tomorrow morning. […] The 10-yr yield decreased five basis points to 1.62% after touching 1.70% overnight. The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.16%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.3% to 91.83. WTI crude futures increased 0.8%, or $0.49, to $60.18/bbl. […] Total CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) — the largest monthly increase since August 2012 — following a 0.4% increase in February. Core CPI increased 0.3% m/m (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.1% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.6% unadjusted versus 1.7% in February. Core CPI was up 1.6% following a 1.3% increase in February. Over the last six months, total CPI is up 3.6% at an annualized rate on a seasonally adjusted basis, whereas core CPI is up only 1.4%. […] The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March increased to 98.2 from 95.8 in February. […] Russell 2000 +12.9% YTD S&P 500 +10.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +10.0% YTD Nasdaq Composite +8.6% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE unch, CAC +0.4% Asia: Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Shanghai -0.5% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.73 @ 60.34 Nat Gas +0.07 @ 2.63 Gold +15.20 @ 1748.00 Silver +0.55 @ 25.41 Copper +0.01 @ 4.03