Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday June 29, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher but off the high of 2737.25 at 4:30  AM; trending up since 8:30 AM on June 28
  • Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 2723.00 for change of fortune
  • Key economic data due:
    • Core PCE (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Personal Spending (0.0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Chicago PMI ( est. 60.1) at 10:00 AM
    • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 99.1) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly up – Sydney was down
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.850%, up from June 28 close of 2.847%;
    • 30-years is at 2.975%, up from 2.966%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.541%, down from 2.549%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.330, down from 0.331

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2709.47, 2691.99 and 2676.81
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2728.1, 2746.09 and 2764.04
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2734.00, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2723.00, the low of 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2718.25 and the index closed at 2716.31 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2719.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow by +68.00; and NASDAQ by +14.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend under pressure
  • 120-Min: Down-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 22 was a red spinning top candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point=2757.69, R1=2772.18, R2=2789.49; S1=2740.38, S2=2725.89; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A piercing green candle ; the high for the day reached 50-D EMA
  • %K crossed above %D from below 20
  • Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Bouncing from the low near 2693.25 at 8:00 AM on June 28 to a downtrend line form June 20 high
  • Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows; a break above 2748.00 will break this sequence
  • RSI-9 trending up since the low of low of 15.68 at 10:00 AM on June 25; a decline from near 65 on June 27 stopped just below 40; coming down below 65
  • %K crossed above %D at 4:00 PM on June 27 from below 10
  • Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above 20-Bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Near the upper limit of a horizontal trading range of nearly 35 points; a break above 2737.25 will create a target near 2770.00; moving up since 8:30 AM on June 28
  • RSI-9 mostly between 40 and 65 with couple of breaches above and below; made a bullish divergence at 8:30 Am on June 28; rising since above 50
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is trending up since 12:30 PM on June 28
  • The band narrowed briefly at 3:00 AM; again expanding with price first moving along upper band and then lower band
  • RSI is staying 40 since 9:15 AM on June 28; mostly above 50 since 10:30 AM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossed %D below 20 in early European session; rising above 80
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday June 28. The indices made either piercing, hammer or dragonfly doji like candle patterns. The volume was lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples (Unch.)
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Heath Care
  8. Real Estate
  9. Telecom
  1. Energy
  2. Utility

 

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