Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday June 22, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 3:30 PM on June 21;
  • Odds are for an up move in the early sessions – watch for break above 2768.50 and break below 2763.25 for more clarity
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly up – Tokyo and Sydney closed lower
  • European markets are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.917%, down from June 20 close of 2.928%;
    • 30-years is at 3.053%, down from 3.063%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.545%, down from 2.566%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.370, up from 0.362

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2744.39, 2739.51 and 2728.74
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2760.60, 2774.16 and 2779.91
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2768.25, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2763.25, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2753.00 and the index closed at 2749.76 – a spread of about +3.25 points; futures closed at 2752.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +14.00; Dow by +121.00; and NASDAQ by +31.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Down-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min:Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 15 was doji with almost similar sized upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point=2777.62, R1=2793.51, R2=2807.36; S1=2763.77, S2=2747.88; No pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A large red candle with no upper shadow and small lower shadow; 3-day evening star is emerging
  • %K s below %D; made a small divergence on June 13 above 90
  • At/below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows broke at 8:00 PM on June 20;
  • Break above a down-sloping flag didn’t last; made a piercing candle at 6:00 AM; at the upper limit of the flag after a brief drop near the lower limit on June 21
  • RSI-9 rising from a low of 37.81 at 10:00 AM on June 21; above 50
  • %K crossed above %D at 8:00 PM on June 21 from below 30 after making a bullish divergence
  • Above 20-bar EMA; below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Uptrend since 3:00 AM in June 19 is under pressure;  broke below the uptrend line at 2:00 AM; broke the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since June 19; trying to break above a down-trend line form a high of 2785.25 at 10:00 PM on June 20
  • RSI-9 mostly rising since 10:00 AM on June 21 from a low of 28..06; rising above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up 9:15 PM on June 21
  • The band is narrow, relatively, since 9:15 PM; price mostly moving along the upper band
  • RSI moving higher since 3:130 PM on June 21 from a low of 28.92 after a making a bullish divergence
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed above %D at 7:30 AM from below 30; %K crossing below %D at 8:15 AM from 100
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday June 21. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower. The volume was higher.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Utility
  3. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Heath Care
  8. Telecom

 

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