Price below a downtrend line on 30-minute chart from the high of 2681.50 reached at 2:30 PM on May 7
Odds are for a down day in increased volatility – watch for break above 2672.25 and below 2658.50 for clarity
No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly up – Seoul was down
European markets are mostly lower – U.K. is up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Gold
Silver
Copper
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.957%, up from May 7 close of 2.950%;
30-years is at 3.124%, up from 3.120%
2-years yield is at 2.514%, up from 2.506%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.443, down from 0.444
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.03, 2637.14 and 2615.32
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2675.56, 2683.35 and 2698.79
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2672.25, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2658.50, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2670.25 and the index closed at 2672.63 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2670.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.50; Dow by -39.00; and NASDAQ by -13.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Up-Side
6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on May 4 was a small real body candlestick line with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
Last week’s pivot point=2646.99, R1=2699.35, R2=2735.29; S1=2611.05, S2=2558.69; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
A down week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A small doji candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadow at the 50-day EMA; the index lost most of its day’s gain in the final hour trading mostly due to the geo-political concerns over the fate of Iran nuclear deal
In the middle of the symmetrical triangle after breaking below it for a day for the second time
Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Declining since 2:00 PM on May 7; break above the downtrend line from April 18 high continues
Retreated a bit from the top of a horizontal trading range that is emerging since 6:00 PM on April 22
RSI-9 made a bearish divergence with price at 8:00 AM on May; declining since 12:00 AM on May 7; below 50 and seems to be bouncing just above 40
At 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Staying above prior resistance that was broken to the upside on May 4; forming a horizontal channel between 2658.00 and 2681.50
RSI below a downtrend line from the high RSI at 2:00 PM on May 4; made a bullish divergence or a double bottom at 5:00 Am and 6:30 AM; approaching 30 from 30
At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 4:000 PM on May 4;
The band is narrowed from 4:00 PM to 3:30 AM; expanded slightly since then
RSI rising from a low of 19.39 at 5:00; crossing above 50
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a bullish divergence at 6:45; %K above %d since 7:00 AM
Bias: Up-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices mostly advanced on Monday May 7 in lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average declined in higher volume. The indices were quit high during the day but then gave up most of the gains in the last hour of trading. The price action was affected by geo-political events, namely the fate of Iran nuclear deal.