Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday April 24, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 2:30 PM on April 23
  • Breaking above a horizontal channel;
  • Down bias on daily, sideway bias on 2-hour charts and side-to-up bias lower degree timeframes
  • Odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for break above 2688.00 and below 2682.00 for more clarity
  • Key economic data due
    • CB Consumer Confidence (128.7 vs. 126.0 est.) at 10:00 AM
    • New Home Sales (694K vs. 625K est.) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Spain is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.973% on April 23, up from April 20 close of 2.951%;
    • 30-years is at 3.144%, up from 3.142%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.491%, up from 2.439%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.499, down from 0.512

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2657.69, 2645.05 and 2639.25
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2682.86, 2698.79 and 2702.84
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2688.00, the high at 6:30 AM and break below 2682.00, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2669.75 and the index closed at 2670.29 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2671.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +16.75; Dow by +159.00; and NASDAQ by +36.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small red harami spinning top candle within a larger red candle; at the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
  • At 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Rising since 2:00 PM on April 23 after making a short double-bottom and after a decline that started at 8:00 AM on April 18 from a resistance zone;
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 rising since 12:00 PM on April 19 from a low of 18.44 in zigzag manner; above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA; at EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Rising since 2:30 PM on April 23; broke above a downtrend line from, the high of April 18; breaking above a horizontal channel with a 24 point height; the 61.8% extension target is near 2698.00 and the 100% extension target is near 2707.00
  • RSI is rising from 32.16 at 2:30 PM on April 23; broken above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 9:30 PM on April 23 following a sideway move from 4:00 PM on April 20
  • The band was narrow from 9:45 PM to 4:00 AM and is expanding since then
  • RSI is mostly stayed between 40 and 65 since 6:15 AM on April 23; is above 65
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday April 23 in lower volume. Most made a small harami candle within a larger red candle of Friday.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Transportation Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 closed lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Utility
  4. Heath Care
  5. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Finance
  5. Technology
  6. Telecom

 

Exit mobile version