Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday April 20, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are little changed; moving  higher since 3:30 AM;
  • Forming a W14 pattern as named by Arthur Merrill
  • Odds are for an up move – watch for break below 2690.25 for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed lower
  • European markets are mixed – U.K., France, Spain and Italy are up; Germany, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.929%, up from April 19 close of 2.914%;
    • 30-years is at 3.120%, up from 3.105%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.437%, up from 2.436%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.492, up from 0.478

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2681.90, 2676.38 and 2665.16
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2698.79, 2702.84 and 2708.51
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2698.25, the high at 7:00 AM and break below 2690.25, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2693.25 and the index closed at 2693.13 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2693.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little changed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow down by -10.00; and NASDAQ down by -11.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Dn-Side
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A red candle with almost no upper shadow and lower shadow equal to the real body; %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D from over 95; touched 20-day EMA
  • Near the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
  • Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00; retracing from a resistance near 2719.00 level
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 declined from a high of 86.11 at 6:00 AM on April 18 to a low of 18.44  by 12:00 PM on April 19; rising since then
  • At/below 20-bar EMA and at EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Declining from a high of 2718.50 at 7:30 AM on April 18 in a rounding top pattern; forming a ‘W’ pattern, which Arthur Merrill named as W14, a bullish pattern
  • Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI started to rise from a low of 17.46 at 1:00 PM on April 19, then dipped  from just above 50 to 31.66 and then again started to rise; above 50 and at highest level since 1:00 PM on April 19
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on April 19 after trending down from 12:30 AM on April 18
  • Broke below a descending triangle; achieved 100% extension target and came very near 161.8% extension target
  • The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 2:45 AM
  • RSI is moving up from a low of 23.16 at 3:30 AM, touched 65 and is above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed over %D just above 25
  • Bias: Dn-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday April 19 in lower volume. Most major indices are making a three-candle evening star pattern. Also, the %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Finance
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Technology
  6. Utility
  7. Heath Care
  8. Real Estate
  9. Telecom

 

Exit mobile version