S&P Futures are almost unchanged; moving higher after making a double bottom at 4:00 AM; break above 2718.75 will confirm the pattern
Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2721.25 and break below 2706.50 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Exiting Home Sales (est. 5.61M) at 10:00 AM
FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly up – Shanghai was closed
European markets are mostly down – U.K. is up
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Silver
Coffee
Cotton
Crude Oil
Gold (unch.)
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.882%, down from February 20 close of 2.893%;
30-years is at 3.154%, down from 3.155%
2-years yield is at 2.266%, up from 2.189%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.616 down from 0.688
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2706.76, 2689.82 and 2648.87
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2737.60, 2754.42.67 and 2763.00
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2721.25, the high of 11:00 PM on February 20 and break below 2706.50, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2715.25 and the index closed at 2716.26 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 2714.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mostly to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75; Dow down by -4.00; and NASDAQ up by +21.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Down-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side-Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on February 16 was a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance following -5.2% decline previous week
Last week’s pivot point=2703.03, R1=2783.61, R2=2835.00; S1=2651.64, S2=2571.06; R1 was breached;
An up week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A spinning top candle following an almost shooting star candle near 61.8% retracement; potential evening star
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June 2016 lows is near 2534.86 and the index low on Friday 2532.69
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
Above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA but above 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Fluctuating near a resistance level of 2733.00;
A horizontal channel is forming; at the upper limit after a short breach above it
RSI-9 in a downtrend since 2:00 AM on February 16 after twice going above 70;
Below 20-bar EMA and at/above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
The break below a descending triangle did not last long; neither did the break above; broke below the resistance and a smaller descending triangle is emerging
RSI is mostly in downtrend since 5:00 AM on February 15 with a sequence of lower high; between 50 and 40 since 1:30 PM on February 20
At 20-bar EMA which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down ward since 6:45 PM on February 18
The band contracted in early Asian session but is 11:00 PM on February 20;
RSI mostly below between 50 and 40 since 2:45 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving up after making a divergence at 4:00 below 20; %K reached 96.00 at 7:00 AM
Bias: Down
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday February 20, the day after the three-day Presidents’ Day weekend. The volume was mostly lower from Friday. Most of the indices are making a 3-day evening star pattern. A close below Tuesday’s low will confirm the pattern. The high on Friday was near the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the highs.
