Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Thursday February 8, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  •  S&P Futures are higher from previous close but not much from NYSE session close
  • An up-sloping flag is emerging on 6-minute chart; a break below 2657.00 will be quite bearish
  • Odds are for a sideways days with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2686.00 and break below 2657.00 for a change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Unemployment Claims (221K vs. 232K est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Mortgage Delinquencies (est. 4.88%) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly up – Shanghai was down
  • European markets are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.875%, up from February 7 close of 2.844%;
    • 30-years closed at 3.162%, up from 3.117%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.126%, unchanged
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.749 up from 0.718

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2674.07, 2656.44 and 2627.57
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2701.04, 2732.06 and 2763.39
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2686.50, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2657.00, the low of 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2679.00 and the index closed at 2681.66 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2668.25 for the day; the fair value is +10.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.75; Dow by +107.00; and NASDAQ by +55.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Dn-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on February 2 was a bearish engulfing candle, with a very large decline, -3.9%
  • Last week’s pivot point 2797.57 R1=2835.18 R2=2908.22; S1=2724.53, S2=2686.92; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
  • A down week; first in last five weeks and second in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • Uptrend under pressure
  • A shooting star candle; break below 2681.33 will be bearish
  • The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from October 2016 lows is near 2570.00 and the index low on Monday was 2593.07
  • Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
  • Below 50-day EMA but above 100-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Bounce from the low of 2529.00 hit the resistance at EMA10 of EMA50 at 2726.75; the decline from there took it to the 38.2% retracement of the bounce;
  • The 61.8% retracement of the big decline on February 2 and February 5 is near 2745.00
  • RSI-9 rising from 3.92 and is above 50 but below 65
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Dn-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Irregular H&S pattern emerging; break below 2645.00 will complete the pattern and break above 2700.00 will nullify it
  • RSI-14 is within 65 and 50 since 9:00 AM on February 6
  • Above 50-bar EMA which is above 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:30 PM on February 6
  • The band is contracting since Asian session
  • RSI is between 65 and 40 most of the time since 00:15 on February 6
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a bullish divergence below 20 at 6:30 AM and is about to make a bearish divergence above 80
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday February 7. Indices gave a large intraday gain just before the close. Most also made a shooting star candlestick pattern. A break below Wednesday’s low will be bearish. The volume was lower than on Tuesday.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Technology
  6. Utility
  7. Heath Care
  8. Real Estate
  9. Telecom
  1. Industrials
  2. Finance

 

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